Preparation for the AT assaultis coming together, the RV is in the house (outside of the house) and the Backcountry.com wrap is being designed.
Training wise: Yah, I’ve been running every day, the real training will be after the WS track meet, where I’ll go hiking alot instead of running, it’ll be nice to slow down once in a while.
The biggest concern is the tracking device from SPOT, it works well, but some details need to be improved for it to work the way we want it to. Our friends at SPOT and BC.com are working to provide the ultimate tracking tools to make this adventure not only fun for me, but fun for all to watch me suffer. I like to suffer! Check out our AT command center at whereskarl.com for some new video and info leading to the 2174 mile adventure.
We are now 26 days from the Western States Track Meet, and I’ll certainly do some odds for this one. But first, here’s a list of contenders I know of. If there are any others out there, please help me out and chime in with some comments on their qualifications.
Men: Alan Abbs, Todd Braje, Josh Brimhall, Graham Cooper, Lon Freemen, Mark Godale, Hiroki Ishikawa, Andy Jones-Wilkins, Hal Koerner, Anton Krupicka, Sean Meissner, Karl Meltzer, Zach Miller, Brian Morrison, Dan Olmstead, Neil Olsen, John Olsen, Jorge Pacheco, Glen Redpath, Kevin Sawchuck, Erik Skaden, Mike Wardian, Mike Wolfe, Chikara Omine, Scott Wolfe, Jean Pommier and Jeff Riley.
Women: Beverly Abbs, Meghan Arboghast, Michelle Barton, Annette Bednosky, Susannah Beck, Jenny Capel, Francesca Conte, Devon Crosby-Helms, Nikki Kimball, Kami Semick, Rena Schumann, Jenn Shelton, Caren Spore, Beth Vitalis, Suzie Lister, and newcomer Sabrina Moran.
Red lettering….the real contenders to win it, Blue lettering….the darkhorses. Black lettering….Some faster folks that might surprise someone A good preliminary list to get things going! Also this week, the San Diego 100 and the Squaw Peak 50 are happenin”. I’ll be at the Squaw Peak 50 running with my wife Cheryl in her first 50 mile attempt, she picked Squaw Peak cuz’ it’s an easy one…yah right! The snow is starting to melt away at Snowbird, the Speedgoat 50K is filling up quickly now, so those interested in running the toughest 50k in the US, come join in the fun and get your arse kicked on some of the finest goat trails in Utah. Find the Application here. Thanks to the Speedgoat 50k sponsors: Snowbird Ski Resort, Backcountry.com, LaSportiva, Nathan Human Propulsion Laboratories, First Endurance, Powerbar, Red Bull, NUUN, Moeben, Wasatch Running Center, Nordic Track, and Black Diamond. We’re still needing volunteers for the race, so if you interested, grab you’re binoculars, and cowbells and come up to Snowbird for the Speedgoat Party on the Peak. In a recent news flash….Scott Jurek will not give Kyle Skaggs a run for it at Hardrock. Let’s hope Scott is not injured, Seems HR may be another run-away victory for Mr. Skaggs….no pressure Kyle, run your own race!
Agreed that Wardian should be considered a darkhorse, but shouldn’t everyone else who’s never run States be considered a darkhorse? It’s nothing about WS in particular, as the same probably holds true for anyone running a particular 100 for the first time when the race has a deep field. Course familiarity = time savings, right? I think knowing the States course has been key to the performances of folks like Tweet, Jurek, Nielsen, and AJW - every year there are lots of sickly talented folks at States, but the same WS veterans continuously beat up on the new comers.
I think many people forget that Wardian has raced 100s before. He ran 15:34 at Vermont years ago when he was not in the kind of shape he’s in today. He also ran Old Dominion a while back. Regardless, Iron Mike will be a fun one to follow through the day and the further back he is early, the more interesting it’ll be. He could absolutely torch Cal Street and beyond.
Kevin Sullivan from Massachusetts deserves at least black lettering consideration. He was recently second at Leona Divide.
WS women:
Caren Spore should get consideration, she’s local (Davis) and has been running well, was 5th at Miwok with two of the women above her not in WS this year, plus she was 4th at WS last year.
Suzie Lister and Beth Vitalis probably both should get black lettering consideration, Suzie ran 7th last year and Vitalis is usually strong.
Francesca Conte maybe a dark horse, she was 2nd to Suzanna Bon at Quicksilver so has been training strong.
WS men:
Jean Pommier may be a dark horse. Doubt he’ll win, but he could be top 10 with a good day. He’s local and has had some impressive runs lately, especially in heat.
Other Contenders: Scott Wolfe (Eugene), Jeff Riley (in top 10)… he was last year as well.
Karl,
Glad to see training is going well. I am excited for your adventure and look forward to see how SPOT works out. I’ve never heard of SPOT before, but after I read about you using it, I’ve been hearing more and more about it. I am looking into it for myself for longer unsupported runs… its a cool tool!
As far as women go for the WS, I’d like to give a strong shout out to 1st timer Sabrina Moran… while she doesn’t race ultras (this is her first “official” 100), she is a young gun that can kick some tail. A relative unknown, when she shows up, she’ll put the hurting on (3rd place at Mountain Masochist last year earned her a spot in the WS track meet).
Rather than that, I think you got a good spread… should be interesting! All the best,
- Greg
Also, I like Mike Wardian… saw him at JFK 50. What a beast!
- Greg
The list grows! Thanks for the help, I’ll add everyone listed here in “black lettering”
I’m thinking anyone that hasn’t started/finished a 100M would be more along the lines of light grey.
Any insider info on how the defending champ is doing? Seems quiet this year.
Hal is laying low and will likely show up and bust another one out! Only time will tell.
zach miller had orthoscopic knee surgery a month ago - and although recovering amazingly well, probably not running his fastest…his wife suggests maybe running more like a donkey than a darkhorse - however, his rest might prove her wrong!
What a list, is it best ever?? Bryon, I had no idea Iron Mike busted 2 100’s before, surely bumps his chances now. So cool to watch for everybody! I can’t even make predictions and put bets on men’s field. In fact, even for women, what is crazy:)
Is Phil Kochic not racing?? Wasn’t he top 5 last year?
Just curious. Think any of these elites will take Dewitt up on his offer (Dec 6 at your old blog) to get a refund if they “bag” WS in protest of the weak field?
Could’ve saved some cyber ink and just inserted “Tony”.
Joking, somewhat, but really I’d be pressed to imagine someone beating him. He seems to be training smartly, and no mention of injuries (even slight ones), which he’s usually very open about on his running log.
I’m more excited to follow WS than I am at attempting my first 100 (Leadville) this year. Well, ok, almost as excited.
Burn that east coast trail in August, Karl!
TL
Tony is the man to beat for sure, the best thing us other guys can do is try and put some pressure on him…which may not be possible. He’ll lead the list for sure.
Thanks for the info on Zach, I won’t mention how in 2000 I won Wasatch off the couch after suffering a bulging disc two months before the race. Rest is important.
I’ll burn the east coast trail, don’t you worry!
Unfortunately, I doubt anyone would want there money back this year. Paul’s offer was very cool, and at 300 bucks a pop for entry, he better hope we all don’t ask him for a refund….way too many fast guys and gals this year….but still not everyone, and that’s a shame.
here is what i would like to know. It’s obviously not the most economically sanguine time in America. Can someone please tell a full-time employee and runner like myself how someone like Anton can afford to live the running lifestyle he has. It’s obvious to rack up those miles, have time for travel and train where ever and when ever, stay injury free for the most part, a full-time job would be out of the question. I understand the “live simply” slogan that we’ve heard time and again, and I too try and live as simple, yet comfortable as possible. That said… how does someone like Anton or any other ultra folk that don’t work and are not in retirement age able to pay the bills, afford gas money too and fro, and when I mean bills I mean all of them, that goes for those that try and live in a stick hut and eat twigs and berries. I understand there is sponsorship, but I highly doubt enough to supply an ultrarunner.
lets face it, even a broke college student has to pay some bills and afford to live.
Iv’e always been curious, so if someone can answer me this question, thank you for clearing the air..
wealthy parents?
I tried to pick up some myself, but they’re fresh out.
Tim-
Hell if I put in the miles that that Tony has, anything less than 1st place would be be failure in my book. But everyone has their own goals I guess.
Wynn,
Maybe you should direct this question to Karl. I believe he does not work at a “formal job” anymore. And he is just recently married? How did/does he swing it. And I believe he owns a house?
Karl,
Steven Warshawer may be a Darkhorse. I think Rick Spady is crewing. Steve only has a few races since his return. He appears in great shape.
gitagoing
I’m currently writing the book on how to live on the edge, own a house and still afford gas these days. It’ll be out soon. In all seriousness (and we don’t want to get off the subject) most people don’t understand how to live on pennies. Anton, Kyle Skaggs and many others like myself do not focus on money, we focus on how to live cheaply, how to manage money, and know when to spend and when not to spend. It certainly is an art to say the least. Be a ski bum in Utah, rent out a few rooms….mortgage paid. None of us are trustfunders or have rich parents that give/gave us money. I can’t remember the last time I spent money at a gas station on anything but gas….can you? Think about it.
Well stated. I find myself living more and more simple all the time. Single, job with summers off and vacation (teaching: schedule caters well to an ultrarunner), cheap ass rent. Soon to move to Duluth so I can bike to work/town and out my front door be welcomed with 100’s of miles of epic trails. Although a liberal I guess I have that little bit of security factor that I like to have in the back pocket (i.e. health insurance, steady income, retirement,). My college days of waking up on davenports are over. Some things just have to change, and when I get old and grey I don’t want to be wearing a Wal-Mart smock either.
Well stated Karl, I often tell my students that they would be amazed at how little one needs to survive, be happy and live comfortably. So many parents stress the old addage of MONEY!!!!!
oh yeah…. and running is work, some of the cheapest labor and toughest labor, but most fun labor I have ever experienced. 100miler makes writing a dissertation a piece of cake.
enough of my drivel.
GO RUN!
To get back to the subject of WS. I just noticed that Scott Jurek is not on either the waiting list or the start list of Hardrock. Any chance of Scott joining the trackmeet?
Right on, Karl.
We would all love Scott to run at Western, it would be a great year to defend his record, but he didn’t qualify according to Nontrail’s standards, but in everyone else’s eyes, he’s qualified even if he wants to enter the day before….He’s earned the number 1 status there, and should not be denied if he wants to run….I say let him in!…if he wants in.
FYI to “another anon”, 3 of the women who finished ahead of Caren at Miwok are running WS. Kami, Bev, and another Oregonian, Prudence L’Heureux. Prudence was 3rd at Miwok in a solid 9:47. She definitely might surprise some folks. (BTW, I think Caren should get more than consideration - she’s good and she proved that last year!)
Hasn’t Mr. Koerner been injured for a few months now? I know he has had to drop from several races.
Karl, Are you driving the motor home to states? You could sit in a lounge chair, sipping Red Bull in the parking lot at Squaw, and hand out some of those backcountry.com “monkey spank” stickers”.
speaking of stickers, how does one get one of those backcountry goat stickers? i remember seeing them once on backcountry.com but i can’t seem to find them now. any help!
good luck at WS, karl!
I agree whole heartedly… If scott wants to run WS than he should run it, despite not making the requirements. His achievements have not only garnered his recognition into the race, but his performances have helped that race grow in many ways.
Oh yeah and cause I always pull for a native northwoods runner (:
Wynn
I’ll have plenty of stickers at Western, don’t you worry, but they’ll say whereskarl.com. the logo is awesome! I won’t be bringing the RV to Western, but will have a magnet on my car, so you’ll know if I’m there. 4 bucks a gallon is killing us all!
great list. along with prudence maybe susannah beck should be looked at after setting the course record at cool? it’s going to fun “watching” all the fast folks from back of the pack.
tom riley
the slower brother of jeff riley M9
Suzanna is the fastest of all in the field….at Cool and Moab, but those races are only 1/3 the distance, and under cool temp conditions. Western is a 100 mile heater, and I think I’m right saying it’s Suzannah’s first 100….she gets the darkhorse odds.
Doing these odds are gonna be fun!
I know you can get some stickers on backcountry.com’s website at http://www.backcountry.com/store/sticker_signup.html
I think you also get some when you order from there too
I think Jack Cook from Alberta is racing WS100. He has won the Canadian Death Race 125K a couple times. I don’t know if he has won any other long ultras.
You might just get a whereskarl.com sticker in the next order.
Jack Cook, another mystery man. It’s gonna be a great race to say the least.
Karl-
Thanks for helping at AS#6 @ Squaw. Looking forward to Speedgoat and your ASSAULT on AT.
Well shucks that bites now that Jurek is out of Hardrock. After cruising through the list of official runners I don’t see anyone coming close to Skaggs. This could be a runaway train. Run his own race and he should seal the deal.
Kyle will be gone at mile .2. See ya! It’s a shame Scott won’t be running to give Kyle a run for it. Now Kyle will have to break my clockwise record all by himself…which of course he can!
Karl,
Oh my gosh, what a pride of being picked in the pre-selection list!
And I realize I am the oldest of the 27, with my first 50-miler less than 2 years ago, so I still consider myself a rookie.
Sincerely, unless you all crash, I’d be delighted to get in the top 20 again this year. I’m just amazed at the competitive field this year, this looks like a Championship to me. Even the Masters category is getting so hot with Andy, Jorge, Neil and you, all turning 40 this year. Should be fun to watch, unfortunately I’ll most likely be too far behind to see you guys.
See you in Squaw,
Jean
Farther Faster
Karl
Please allow me to insert a real dark horse. Jez Bragg from the UK. According to my UK ultra friends, Jez owns every course record in the UK (including the West highland Way 100 mile) and is the dominant ultra runner in that country.
I know Western States can prove unkindly to first-timers and no foreigner has ever won the race. These Brits though, they are tough.
See you in Squaw,
Paul Charteris
Oh yes, and like Paul, acknowledging that first timers don’t always play well at WS, you may want to include Benoit Laval in your blue list.
Jean.
No doubt a few from the other side of the pond will surprise us, it certainly makes it interesting. I wish his link was in english though, I don’t know French.
WS wild card…Erik Skaden. All the talk has been about Anton..great runner..I see a three person race..anton, graham cooper and Skaden has had a great spring training…It will take a great effort but he has two strong pacers that will push him…It will be a fun day all the same…
Tony
The color coding was a simple, but brilliant idea, Karl. I’m almost thinking the move will give new vocabulary in ultrarunning parlance: “Karl blued him for Leadville.” “I got blacked by Meltzer for the 3rd time.”
One more: “That dude is red letter.”
I never thought the colored lettering would go this far….but in reality it is a good idea. When I do odds on Monday, I’ll keep the colors, maybe a few will overlap.
enjoying your color listing….have to put a plug in for our SoCal Bad Rat, Tracy Moore…..M7…from last year and he is at the top of his game having posted the second fastest winning time at PCT50 in May. Good luck to you Karl….I’ll be hours and hours behind eating dust.
I really liked the way they came off