And the odds are:
Mens Race: Anton Krupicka 8-5. We all know he’s the man to beat. The heat will be his toughest competitor. Hal Koerner 5-2. Last year’s winner knows he can run under 16 now, if he has injury issues, he’ll be rested and ready to rip one. Erik Skaden 4-1. A few bridesmaids finishes, last year ran 16:34, has been running strong, if he peaks now, it may even be his turn to win. A podium finish for sure. John Olsen 4-1. Ran a fast one at Rio Del Lago, and is ready and fit for this one. Lon Freeman 5-1. He was close last year, this year should be no different…not to mention the experience factor. Mike Wardian 6-1. Mike’s two wins at the “no headphones” 50k and 100k, shows he’s the fastest one in the field, has run under 16 for 100 miles. Brian Morrison 6-1. His DQ finish a few years ago has probably made him quite hungry to have a good run. It would be great to see him return and run up front. Speedgoat Karl 7-1. Took the lucky number 7 position, I have no issues now and feel good, but the real focus is on the AT after the track meet. If I’m in it, I’ll be going for it, if I’m not, I’m gonna have a fun run! Jorge Pacheco 8-1. Jorge is always in it early, if he can survive the early pace into Robinson Flat, and feel fresh there, my guess is he’ll have good run. Josh Brimhall 9-1. Josh ran 16:48 at San Diego a few years ago, that’s enough to tell me he makes the list. Todd Braje 9-1. Wondering if he peaked too early. Probably not, he’s got the speed to be up front, we’ll see where he ends up. Graham Cooper 10-1. I think he’s been running well lately, his odds should probably be better, being a previous winner, but this field is tough. Zach Miller 12-1. Zach would have been further up this list without arthroscopy on his knee, but at least he’s here. Top 10 would get him back next year, if he holds up well, he could be much further up this list. Andy Jones-Wilkins 13-1. AJW is the sentimental favorite, and looking to go under Twiet’s master record (17:17)….and probably will, but there’s a few masters ahead of him on this crazy list. Dan Olmstead 13-1. Speedy on shorter distances, on a great day could even contend to win. Glen Redpath 14-1. Has shown great prowess in the past, and could work his way up this list, if he hangs tough Sean Meissner 14-1. Off and On, when he’s on he’s fast, when he’s off, he’s out. A hard call, would love to see Sean nail one at Western. Neil Olsen 15-1. Another Master looking to crack the top 10. Hiroki Ishikawa 15-1. It would be cool if Hiroki won, he’s already a national hero in Japan, he could be a hero in the US too. Notables: Mark Godale Alan Abbs Mike Wolfe Chikara Omine Jeann Pommier Jeff Riley Kevin Sullivan Scott Wolfe Jack Cooke Jez Bragg Tracy Moore Women’s Race Nikki Kimball 5-2. Even after just running 53 miles in Vermont, she’s the toughest one in the field, and just getting herself back into great shape. No rookie at this one. Kami Semick 4-1. One of the few to beat Nikki, and with a good run could take the throne from Nikki. Jenn Shelton 6-1. Another speedy one, but will she manage her fuel well? Eat your gel Jenn! Beverly Abbs 7-1. Close but not quite fast enough to hang up front the whole distance. Suzannah Beck 8-1. The fastest of the bunch at shorter distance, I believe a sub 2:40 marathon. But this ain’t no marathon. If she plays here cards right, she has the talent and speed to go close to Ann Trason’s record…but she’ll have to nail her first 100. Devon Crosby-Helms 9-1. Just behind Suzannah, we’ll see what kind of 100 experience she brings to the table, she has the speed to stay up front. Caren Spore 11-1. I hear she’s been running well and will look for her best time this year. Jenny Capel 11-1. Not fast enough to compete for the win, but always a solid performer. Francesca Conte 12-1. Sentimental favorite, great Hong Kong runner. Notables: Meghan Arbogast Michelle Barton Rena Schumann Beth Vitalis Suzie Lister Sabrina Moran Prudence L’HeureuxA few things to think about: Please correct me if I’m wrong.
The over 40 category is a race in itself, the record is 17:17…Tim Tweitmeyer. Andy Jones-Wilkins Speedgoat Karl Jorge Pacheco Neil Olsen All these guys are over 40 and will be running for the masters record too!
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NOAA has it 95 during the day and 63 at night. PERFECT!
What about Glen Redpath among the men? He’s the closest, I suspect, we have an East Coast threat.
Annette Bednosky won’t be running, due to injury.
Nikki Kimball even said in VT newspaper after Pittsfield that she might not run WSER. Bluffing?
FORESTHILL AREA FIRES
http://www.auburnjournal.com/detail/87243.html
My Guesses:
Krupicka @ 15:18
Skaden
Morrison
Meltzer
AJW
Cooper
Freeman
J. Olsen
J. Riley
T. Moore
M. Wolfe
*The only guestion is, how fast will Anton run? Buddy K.Skaggs is pacing him, so if he doesn’t blow in the heat, then he and Skaggs with either stop and go for a swim, or he will put his nose to the grindstone and see what type of tempo he can push to the finish. What will he do is any one’s guess.
The rest of the field will be determined by who is smart enough to run their own race and not get caught up in Anton’s race. I would think that most of the fast runner’s realize that if you can’t train at his level, you sure as hell can’t race at his level.
I pick Skaden for another runner-up spot. If Anton crashes, he will be there to pick up the pieces. Eric is a tough, bad-ass, runner, without the frills and doesn’t waste his time cultivating a bunch of sponsors and flash. He trains fast and hard and gets the job done.Plus he trains in hot weather.
Who will be the surprise top ten runner who nobody lists?
I think the close race will be the men’s master’s race. Meltzer or AJW? Twiet’s record is stout. If the record goes, it won’t be by much. AJW stated earlier in the year that he was going to run more of the uphills in order to go under the record. Will this pay off or sink him?
Karl,
I had posted this in the Runners’ World forum:
And top 1 in the Masters…
Krupicka - Braje - Freeman - Wardian - Meltzer - Olsen - Cooper - AJW
so adding him in 2nd position (again…). That puts you in 6th, not too far from the lucky 7th
Safe travel and see you on Thursday or Friday, rain or shine, but no smoke please…
Jean.
Farther Faster
website to check on air quality updates for the race. It includes Placer County. It’s looking to be a nice hot and smokey, moderately unhealthy day!
http://www.sparetheair.com/forecast.cfm
The smokier the better, let it be thick as molasses, Tony can clear the way, or will his pacer clear his way? If Tony runs 15:18, at least he can say he wasn’t muled at all, cuz’ he’ll finish in daylight. Remember it’s all in good fun, don’t take these comments the wrong way, I would love to see Tony or anyone else go under Scott Jurek’s record, this course is a little different and a bit slower, it would be all that much more impressive. Pressure’s on Tony, I’ll be lagging back there with the rest of em’.
As long as the smoke doesn’t ruin my ipod, who cares. I guess it will be a test to see if we can run and smoke a pack of Camel’s at the same time? Unfiltered please!
HMM… I’m fairly new to the sport of ultrarunning but I do know that course knowledge can play a huge role in the outcome. We all know Anton has the speed and distance experience but what about the lack of course knowledge in this highly anticipated race? Granted he does have his bud pacing him and together they could be very dangerous, I’m just not convinced Anton is the guy for the win (especially if he shows up on race day not wearing socks trying to shave every possible ounce)
As for the Masters - AJW is my choice for a new Masters record.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL THOSE RACING/RUNNING - HAVE A GREAT EXPERIENCE!(because that is what it is all about)
I would add a certain LB to the master’s list. Rumor is that he’s as fit as he’s ever been for WS.
Sorry, not sure what happened to my comment, it got truncated. I was saying or trying to say that I had forgotten Erik and betting on a second spot for him (I know, again…):
Krupicka - Skaden - Braje - Freeman - Wardian - Meltzer - Olsen - Cooper - AJW
And I realize I’m taking a risk by not including other East Coasters than Mike W.
Jean.
Farther Faster
Brad Mitchell - Tony is all that and a bag of chips! Being new to the sport of ultrarunning, you may not have seen his results in the past 2 years, have you? If he shows up in no socks, that means he has trained with no socks. Tony is not only smart but he’s also calculating. He is extremely mature with regards to his discipline to train for a specific race. As far as course knowledge goes, he made a trip out there a couple of weeks ago to preview the course. I would dare say this is the most prepared he has been for a race! I think he will go under 15 hours with Kyle pacing him - no joke!
Another runner to watch is Josh Brimhall. He is ready to rip one loose! He’s got more leg speed than most and for the simple fact that his number is 122, that tells me someone overlooked him. Light em up Josh!
Karl,
Thanks for the post. I cannot wait to glue myself to the webcast again this year.
I am going to be keeping my eye on Tony, Wardian, and Sabrina Moran. Of course I’ll be following you and your progress down to Auburn as well.
All very exciting! Best of luck,
- Greg
FastEd (or Scott) - I have seen Antons results - he has got it in him to crank it out - and it would be pretty wild to see sub 15. Hopefully he took it all in during his May-June course preview and that June 28th turns out to be his day. We all know how every day can be a different challenge no matter how prepared one is. That is one of the great joys of racing - you just never know. The field is stacked this year (w/the exception of Jurek), it will be interesting to see who sets the pace and holds on to it, who will follow or who will play the game.
On another note - good luck at HR!
Great predictions Karl. I like the odds although I’d put Graham Cooper at 4-1 along with Erik and Jon. Graham has had a killer lead-up to this race. I stayed with Jez Bragg last night, he is happy to be dark-horsed and is rearing to go.
Cheers, Paul
Tony wins in new record. Wardian runs no slower than 16:20 and is no lower than 3rd. Sean and AJW both crack the top 6
Karl lagging with the rest of them…all those laggards finishing under 17 hours.
I checked the smoke today in Foresthill. Bad news it is still pretty thick (it gets to you after about 30 minutes of running, mostly in your eyes and drying out your mouth), but the good news is the fire near Foresthill is contained. Most weather reports say the smoke will clear by this weekend, but some say it will get worse depending on the strength of the Delta winds that might pull in more smoke from the Napa fires. May be a factor in the second half. Perhaps we should all knock down a pack of Lucky Strikes per day to prepare. ;-P
Hope to meet you at the start, Karl. If not have a great race!
SD
PS - I would put Michael Buchanan on your list of contenders too. Many sub-6 hour 50-mile finishes, win at the SF Marathon, and he has focused all his training on States this year. Pommier is coming for you in the Masters group…
These are very well informed Comments! I can think of nothing to add. The spotlight will be on Tony - this is what every young athlete wants - until one gets it. Best wishes to him, certainly Karl, and everyone else: what every runner wants, young or old, is simply to not have a big problem, and have the opportunity to do your best.
I picked us some camel’s just last night, I’ll start puffing away now. I’m off now, so to comment, simply register or it won’t get posted. Bring on the heat!
FYI- Word has it the WS Board is meeting today to discuss the race. There are still two small fires near the course, one could cross the course. This and air quality is making it possible the race could be off, but this is third hand info. Stay close to the internet and your e-mails
The race was just announced as cancelled. I am sory for those who were looking forward to this race, training for it, and had altered their plans for it.
It was for a good reason though - running through that much smoke can be incredibly unhealthy. It’s for the best. Be interested on how the lottery system will work for next year.
- Greg
Karl,
I think our father upstairs is trying to tell you to rest up for your big appalation event. Sorry to hear about the damage in Placer county and I am very sorry for all Runners, Familes, Crew and Volunteers that were looking forward to this wonderfull Event. God has a plan for all of us. Please remember this on your upcoming AT journey.