Carpenter “gets it right” this time and hands Ulli Steidl his first Ultra loss! Now they are 1-1 against each other. Perhaps $20,000 next year to settle the score. Having the top 4 within 10 minutes makes this easily the best race of the Year!
And don’t forget Kami Semick for putting herself on top once again. She ran stellar, very smart passing me at about 15 miles and running away from a charging Susannah. I wish I could have stayed closer to the two of them to watch…but I was fried. Full results here
There is no doubt, this race is the one to watch for 2008. The $30,000 purse brings us the fastest and deepest fields. Both the men’s and women’s races should come down to the wire….although I’m thinking the men’s race is already over…if no late entries show up…there may be a few. Hit this link for further info on the race of the year.
The Men’s Race will be fast!
Ulli Steidl 3-2. Ulli won last year in his duel with Matt Carpenter. He knows the course better than anyone else when running it top speed, and Ulli’s top speed is easily faster than all the rest. He’ll win by at least 15 minutes! Marathon best….2:13. Without Matt Carpenter on his heels, Ulli’s record will remain intact. Winning time around 7:10. Kyle Skaggs 3-1. This is Kyle’s chance to take Ultrarunner of the Year without any hesitation from the voters. He’s proven everything in the mountains, and although this race is hilly, it still suits Ulli better in terms of technicality and raw speed. Look for Kyle to stay ahead of Mike Wardian because of his hill strength. He could scare Ulli, but Ulli runs scared alot….out front! Mike Wardian 7-2. Mike has the best speed amongst the others in terms of road marathon speed. He knocks them out with ease under 2:30, but Ulli will have to get lost for Mike to hang with him,and Kyle will have to crash (which he does alot cuz’ he’s going so fast). This is a hilly smooth course, like White River where Mike won with an impressive 6:55ish. He was still 23 minutes behind Ulli’s record there. If he wins it, he takes Ultrarunner of the Year from U-mag. Hal Koerner 4-1. Hal is on a roll, his injuries have subsided and running around Ashland with all those fast young kids has taken his speed to another level. Leigh Schmitt 9-5. Leigh was 3rd last year, and has all the tools to crack the top 3, if he’s ready my 9-5 odds could be off a bit. Geoff Roes 5-1. Geoff is the newcomer to the scene…sort of. He ran fast at the Miwok 100k (8:32) and the Wasatch 100 (20:01) to put his name on the map, now’s his big chance to make it a household name. Phil Kochik 5-1. Phil knows Ulli, and knows Ulli will run away. If Phil runs smart, he could easily slip to 2nd. He has scary fast speed, and has posted some sick times. Look for Phil to be a mystery man this weekend. It doesn’t look as though he’s raced much, this could hurt him a little with this field. Zach Miller 6-1. Zach has posted very fast times at Masochist and other tough east coust races. He too, could run a smart race and slip into the money. He should be fresh and ready to rip after Tussey Mountain. Adam Lint 8-1. Not as well known as some others, but he’s shown great speed breaking 7 hours at the White River 50, only a few minutes back of Wardian this year. Guillermo Medina 12-1. The Southern California representative will run top 10, but doesn’t carry the speed weapons to hang up front. The NF’s best finisher this time. Joe Kulak and Topher Gaylord 15-1. The last two North Face hopes to slip into the top 10. Speedgoat Karl 40-1. He’ll be lucky to be chicked only 3 times.
Who’s missing? Matt Carpenter, Dave Mackey (broken), Anton Krupicka (broken), Erik Skaggs (just won the Quad Dipsea 28.4 and broke Andersen’s record yesterday) Scott Jurek, Erik Skaden, Graham Cooper, Jon Olsen, Jasper Halekas, Matt Estes, and Brian Morrison. They still have time to enter, this is an elite race and fast guys get in at the end.
The ladies race, should once again, be the most interesting to watch:
Susannah Beck 2-1. Susannah has all the tools for the smooth hilly course. She’s only lost once this year at the NF Bellingham to Nikki Kimball. Her only downfall is 50 mile experience, and if she’s not on her game she could go down. We’ll see if she can hold top form all year long. She should make the 10,000 bucks for the ladies. Lizzy Hawker 3-1. The North Face Team is the strongest at this race and Lizzy seems to be the number one girl here for the North Face Team, she won it last year and if she can handle the pressure of the 4 behind her, she’ll make some cash this weekend. Kami Semick 7-2. Kami was very impressive this year at the World 100k. Her speed is intact and this is some of her home turf. She’ll also make some money this weekend, and with a little luck, she could knock out the fastest time. Nikki Kimball 7.1-2. Nikki, Kami and Lizzy are so close it seems wrong to put Nikki fourth in this list, it could go either way. She had a tough early season, and hasn’t raced as much as she normally does. If she is real fit, she has the chance to knock off the three ahead of her on this list. Anita Ortiz 4-1. Anita is the best “shorter distance” mountain runner in this field…hands down. She smoked Moab (2nd behind Susannah by only a few minutes), and smoked the Speedgoat 50k course. But at this race, altitude doesn’t matter. Her experience at 50 miles is also somewhat limited, so I put her 5th. She could, on a great day run away with the win too, if her mountain strength works for her at Sea Level. La Sportivas’ hope to take the big prize. Jean Coulter 8-1. Jean also has great mountain prowess, but is a rookie amongst the rest. The stars will have to line up…during the day… for her to win, but if she can keep her head in it, she could mop up the last $1000 of the day. La Sportiva’s number 2.Other fast girls to watch:
Prudence Le’Heuruex, Helen Cospolich, Justine Morrison, Carol O’hear, and Kathy D’Onofrio. All these women, in some rotation, should round out the top 9.Who’s missing? Susannah Beck, that’s about it.
Speedgoat 50k Applications online December 1st!!
….that’s tomorrow….Monday. Limited to 200, I doubt it’ll fill up like Way Too Cool, but check back regularly if you’re interested in running (and sometimes hiking) the hardest 50k on the planet.
And finally after battling the crowds at Walmart yesterday, why not just shop online at Backcountry.com to avoid the hastle of being trampled. Let the boys and girls in the warehouse do the running this time! Use coupon code: 3PU-1-R38LT for 20% of some stuff.
Oh yah, I ran a 5k on Thanksgiving…18:19! Watch out people, my speed is returning!!
See you in San Fran
