Dave Mackey’s record should remain a tall order, but the race to win will be tight as always.
The Men:
Scott Jurek 2-1. Let’s put a little pressure on Scott and give him the nod. He may not be racing this one to win, (maybe he is) He is sure to be in the mix as the race progresses. Geoff Roes 5-2. His performance at the North Face 50 in December on the same trails proves he can run up front. He wasn’t 100% that day either, and he wants in at Western. Eric Grossman 3-1. He’s fast on hills and flats, so this course should suit him well, his long loping stride that I witnessed (for a few minutes) at Cool was a good indicator he’ll be in it running for the win. Todd Braje 4-1. His 5:30ish 50 mile was the fastest in recent history, not too long ago. If he’s still got that energy, he may just run away with it from the start. Phil Kochik 5-1. He’s run here many times and always near the front. He’s a little erratic though, so I see him either running 5th or winning the thing. Other guys in the mix, but not out front: Matt Lonergan, Erik Skaden, Scott Jaime, Graham Cooper, Brian Morrison, Mark Lantz, Mark Hartell, Jean Pommier……and maybe a few I missed as well.The Ladies:
Kami Semick 2-1. Her performance on her home turf last year at the NF 50 was stellar and should be no different this week. She knows it and owns it, and should win by a comfy margin. Joelle Vaught 4-1. She’s fast and just a little bit faster than Anita on smooth terrain, so she gets the nod for first loser…….in the women’s race. Caitlin Smith 9-5. Caitlin has proved to be super fast in shorter races, but this is a bit new for her. I’ll call her the sleeper. If she manages her run well, she’ll be in it to win it and surprise a few…..then she can take a crack at 100 miles. Anita Ortiz 5-1. Not enough leg speed to run to win, but hills are her friend and she’ll be no further back than third. Prudence L’Heuruex. 7-1. She’s a little erratic, but has it in her to crack the top 3, but needs a great day to beat the three in front of her. Suzanna Bon 8-1. I’m thinking this is not necessarily her type of course but she’s sneaky and may just squeeze out a third. Rob Lang calls in Nicola Gildersleeve as a darkhorse from our neighbor to the north!
Needless to say the race will be fun to watch, and running at the front will be stressful for those trying to make the start line at Squaw. Scott has no pressure on him, he’s in this for the fun of it. Sometimes with no pressure we run better. I am a classic example of that!
For the right shoe, check out my user profile at Backcountry.com. This course is smooth and hilly, so the lighter the better!
It freakin’ snowed big again at Alta, making the Speedgoat 50k course buried even deeper, but have faith, it’ll melt…….at least most of it. Check back soon for good deals at Snowbird for the Speedgoat race.
I just ran the Bonneville Marathon, a muddy, singletrack marathon here in SLC. I went to break my previous CR and came up 6 minutes tall, breaking it by almost 6 minutes. The 6500′ of climb was no match for goat legs. I am finally feeling like I am back in solid form for my assault on 7, 100s this summer. 3:47.52 was the time, that one should hold for a while!
Now go run!
Caitlin Smith?? This is by far the longest she’s gone and against the best competition, and she’s also an ultra rookie, but she’s young, talented, and deserves watching. The other ladies will be for sure.
How about a darkhorse from Canada.
Nicola Gildersleeve.
Rob beat me to it, Gilder will challenge for top five for sure…and hopefully more as it would be great to see her at Western as well! I was doubting Caitlin’s experience for this one, but the more I read about her the more I find myself thinking she could just pull this out, plus, if you check out her blog, she’ll be wearing her lucky thong, so how do you bet against that:) I think Todd might take the mens side. As you mentioned, not sure if Jurek is actually racing for the win in this one or not?
GR
Caitlin is the real deal and I think she has a good chance of winning the women’s race. Doesn’t mean she’ll toe the line at Squaw though.
And I’ll pick Todd on the men’s side - he’s crazy fast.
Nice to see all the chatter about the women.
I’ve trained/raced with Caitlin throughout her transition to ultra distances, and am certain she has a ton of respect and admiration for the veteran runners like Kami, Bev Anderson-Abbs, Nikki Kimball, and others (obviously including Ann Trason before them) who have remained at the top of major race results into their late thirties & mid-forties, it’s amazing. Having just begun her hopefully long ultra racing career, and with no prior 100K, she has no delusions about what it would take for a win at Miwok.
Like Karl writes, it’s Kami’s race for sure (along with the other favorites), and Caitlin knows she’ll have to run pretty much out of her mind, while managing the course/hydration/fueling without room for error, just to have even a slight chance to challenge near the front.
I guarantee she’s excited, anxious, even nervous (been that way before every race thus far), but I am also confident she’s ready to go as well. Should be a great experience for her regardless of the result…looking forward to watching it play out (first hand, as I’ll be pacing with her from Bolinas in).
I too pick Braje on the men’s side, should be an awesome race.
Will G.
I guess my question is: Is Braje past a small peak or not? It’ll be fun to watch!
Good picks, Karl. I’m biased Re Scott and I agree with you, he doesn’t need to win to get to WS, but that means he doesn’t have the pressure either. I even wrote an ultra poem on Scott’s 10th run at Miwok!
BTW, Way Too Cool was dominated by La Sportiva, Miwok may be Brooks’ game this time. Looking forward to the time where we’ll see teams compete like on the Tour de France!
You may also want to consider David James, coming from NY with high ambition (his knee bothered him at NF50 last December, he should be fine this time).
So far, cool weather in the Bay Area, will play in favor of the Northern guys.
Jean.
Farther Faster
Team competitions would be cool, it would bring back the old days when Scott and I ran together for Montrail in 2002. It was very cool only being as fast as the slowest guy. It makes it more interesting.
Nice picks for the guys Karl, but I have to go with Todd Braje. He may be a rookie to the course, but that 50 mile leg speed is excellent for Miwok, assuming he or anyone else is healthy and recovered. (Ultrarunners are never recovered though.) I don’t see Scott winning this year in his usual 8:40/8:45; I don’t think he has ever gone %100 at Miwok as he always saves himself for WS, a smart thing as it is impossible to recover from a hard Miwok before WS. Given good weather I bet the winning time will be around 8:10 this year, but the smart winner won’t be first to the Randall aid station turnaround!
The Alaskan will take it. He is showing up correct and will be tough to beat.
Dave, you are probably right with Scott, it’s a hard training run and he has never run a real fast time there….for Scott. The only way Scott may win it is if he’s in the mix late and everyone else struggles. We’ll see, either way I’d rather be there watching than watching for results on the screen. Go Geoff! I’d love to see the Alaskan win it!
I am also Alaskan so I am a little biased!
I think that Lon Freeman and Jon Olsen have both shown in the last couple of years that if you want entry into Western States badly enough you’ll go all-out at Miwok. Out of those guys, who REALLY wants a WS entry? Geoff Roes? Matt Lonergan?
Cheers, Paul
My money’s on Todd Braje. He really does have the best leg speed of anyone out there, and Miwok is a very runnable course.
Weather.com is predicting a bunch of rain Fri, then intermittent on Sat…should be a sloppy mess of a course.
Sound like Braje has the most pressure on him now! I threw him in 4th so he’d pay well!
Maybe I’ll head out in my Red Bull private jet and come watch!
i cheering for geoff roes. if he’s over his sickness, i bet he puts it down in bay town!
Caitlin posted her own pre-race thoughts here: http://mountainrun.wordpress.com/
Anita is a 5-time member of the US Mountain Running Team, has finished in the top ten in the world, so she definitely had the “leg speed” … up until 5 years ago, she would have blown the socks off any of these women in a race shorter than a marathon.
Geoff Roes just ‘twittered’ an update if anyone is interested:
Dropped out at mile 42. Leading most of race but couldn’t hold down any food or water. Eric Grossman Leading now.
GROSSMAN WINS! As per Geoff Roes:
grroesEric g. Wins. victor b. 2nd. scott Jaime 3rd
Just back from the finish festivities. For the women it was 1. Kami Semick 2. Anita Ortiz 3. Caitlin Smith. Man was it cold, windy and rainy on those ridges.
Congrat’s to the #1 and #2 females at Miwok who both broke the previous course record in crazy conditions! I heard it was the worst weather Miwok has ever had? Special kudo’s to my dear friend Anita who weathered the storm without a pacer and speaks of the amazing integrity of Kami. Turning 40 in a month doesn’t seem that bleak when you have these women to look up to :0)!!
Are we talking Masters CR’s. Yes, amazing performances indeed considering the conditions.
Some day you’ll be a master Hal!