A quick look at the Bighorn 100 this weekend:
This will be my second 100 of the year. Five weeks after a great win at the Massannutten 100 May 16th. If all goes well, (and it should) I feel pretty confident that I’ll have a decent run on the muddy cow trails. Odds on this one are tough, as only know three other guys in the field have a chance at challenging me for the overall win. So I’m gonna make it simple here and try to pick the order for the top 5.
I’m also gonna do the mighty Western States odds on Monday when I return, so check back after this weekend for that. There’s been alot of chatter at AJW’s blog about it, so go there for this weekend, then come back and see what I came up with……all off the cuff of course!
Bighorn 100:
1. Speedgoat Karl 7-2. After putting pressure on myself at Massannutten, why not do it again right? I feel good, no injury issues and running 100 miles is not that far after running the AT. I have the textbook in my back pocket too, in case I need to refer back to the basics :-).
2. John Anderson 5-1. If John puts down a good run, he could win and go under 20 hours. His performance at the Speedgoat 50k last year was good evidence he’ll be near the front. He excelled at technical terrain at the Speedgoat, and if he’s good in the mud, he’s next in line.
3. Harry Harcrow 7-1. This guy runs textbook and under the radar a bit. Good runs at Leadville and Bighorn shows he’s got talent. But he’s got some good talent in front of him to beat. 3rd no problem, but an hour or two back.
4. Phil Shaw 8-1. Another guy that has great talent and has run some solid 100 mile times. On another blog mentioned in the comments on my last post, shows he has 16 minute 5k speed…..that doesn’t matter here. He’ll run solid and could crack top 3 if he keeps that 5k speed at bay.
5. Sander Nelson 11-1. Sander ran great behind me at San Diego a few years back. If he throws down another good one, he’ll run under 22 hours.
The ladies race is very open with Ashley Nordell leading the way in my book. She, like Amy Sproston at Massannutten should run away……unless I missed someone……cuz’ I always miss someone!
Top 5 at Western:
1. Scott Jurek 3-1. He has to be the favorite, he’s won the thing 7 times. 2. Dave Mackey 7-2. Hot on Scott’s heels, and with unfinished business at Western he’s my pick to win….even though I have him second here. 3. Hal Koerner 4-1. He likes to go out quickly, and if he holds it, he’ll be right there at the Auburn track at 930pm. 4. Eric Grossman 5-1. I should probably give him some more love here. He’s been stellar all year and this is his chance to shine. Definately the best on the east coast. The darkhorse (sort of) to win it. 5. Erik Skaden 7-1. He’s proven he can run fast at Western, and although he hasn’t shown big stuff this spring, I’m sure he’s focused on being another darkhorse to win. The mens race is so tight it’s a tough call, but here’s another bunch of guys that will be in it at Robinson Flat…..at least. These are in the order I think they’ll finish.Jasper Halekas, Zach Miller, Kubaragi from Japan, Todd Braje, John Olsen (if he runs), Josh Brimhall, Graham Cooper, Dave James, Dan Olmstead, Brian Morrison, Hiroki Ishikawa, Lon Freeman, Marco Olmo (he wins the over 60 category too), Laval Benoit, Mike Wolfe, AJW, Chikara Omine.
I think top 22 is enough for now. The real odds come out Monday.
Western Women:
1. Nikki KImball 3-2. If she’s fit, she’s the one to beat. She rarely gets beaten, and all the girls behind her on this list have never beaten Nikki at Western. She may crack top 10 overall. 2. Krissy Moehl 4-1. Wouldn’t it be great if Krissy would be real competitive here. She’s got the talent, and could squeak in a win if Nikki doesn’t get to Auburn first. 3. Anita Ortiz 6-1. I almost missed her here. She certainly has the talent, but it’s her first 100. The girls behind her will mop her up if she has a bad day, but she’s tough as nails. The only thing holding her back is maybe the heat. She’ll be close early when it’s hilly. 4. Bev Abbs 7-1. Another girl right in the mix, she’s been running well, and now is her turn to show it off. 5. Jenn Shelton 8-1. She’s horrible in the mountains, (sorry Jenn), but if she hangs in there to Foresthill and is still going strong, she is easily the fastest girl once the trail gets smooth. I’ll have the shot glass loaded for her if she wins. 5. Jenny Capel 10-1. Another girl that is pretty quick, but has her hands full with the 4 in front of her. She’s the sleeper in this field. 6. Connie Gardner 11-1. She kills it at 24 hour races and on the roads. Same as Jenn though, if she hangs tough through Foresthill, she’ll be running to win. Prudence L’Heureux and Meghan Arboghast take the next two.Remember the real odds come out on Monday, I’m gonna need something to think about while I’m running from the Bears in the Bighorn Mountains this weekend.
I won’t be able to moderate comments while I’m in Wyoming, so register to see your comment. I’ll try Thursday but no promises on that.
Now go Run!
Go HARD Karl! I’m mean really, really HARD! So hard it takes 4 weeks to recover… Otherwise just stay home.
Karl,
Have fun up there sloppin’ around in the mountains. Unfortunately I’ve had a last minute change of plans and won’t be running at Bighorn–wish I could be there. Hopefully, I’ll get to run Hardrock so I can leave my drop bags packed. I’ll be down in Silverton but I’m still on the wait list hoping to score a last minute spot. See you there and tear it up this weekend.
–John Anderson
Super, notre Benoît national est dans le top 20 !!!!
salut les Ricains !
Anita Ortiz..top 3 at WS; she will win on a cool day.
John Anderson’s finish at Speedgoat 50k is evidence that he’ll be near the front for this 100 miler? That makes zero sense. History shows that a fast 50k runner (basically a marathon runner) does not translate to a strong 100 mile runner, necessarily. We’ll see!
Kill it Karl. Watch out for Pete Mehok from Austin. Ready to bust it out. So f’ing jealous of y’all!!
Hi Karl,
For the Western States you forgot to mention Anita Ortiz.
Its her first 100 Miler I think but she did pretty well at the Miwok 100. So I think she is good for a Top 5 finish.
Go Bighorn Karl!
Markus
I’m a biased Canadian and am looking for Gary Robbins to be in the mix near the top!
“running from the bears”- so much for your powers of prediction, Karl, should have said, “running from the moose”.
Congrats, Karl! A full two hours ahead of 2nd place. Way to go, 2 100-mile wins already
Meant to say it yesterday but huge congrats on another outstanding performance! Too bad you won’t be at Western to show the rest of us how it’s really done!
GR
CONGRATS Karl, nice back to back First places…
Great 2009′ season so far, Recover well and enjoy a few cold ones!
Cheers \_/ \_/
Congrats at Bighorn! Look fwd to the Moose story.
States:
Never bet against anyone who is 7 wins in 7 tries. Yet Dave is as fit as I’ve ever seen him. If this was a 50 mi or 100 km it would be no contest … but it isn’t, so it will be.
Anita’s 2nd at Miwok (a near win) encouraged her to try a 100. If she can take it easy - not something she likes doing - Anita is top 5.
Mike: About the comment on John Anderson at Bighorn. You are right, history will show that good marathoners and 50k runners are not necessarily good at 100s. However. I don’t believe you have run the Speedgoat 50k? It is not you’re typical 50k. The Speedgoat has 11,000′ of climb on rocks, scree, and nasty stuff. John was strong, and as I am the RD and saw how he did it, I would put John right where I had him….second on the “odds” list. Unfortunately he was not able to start. A guy named Nick Clark ran second in his FIRST 100. How do you explain Nick’s performance? Nick is a very fast shorter distance runner, and he barely runs 50k’s. 100s are very unpredictable. I do odds for guys and girls I think will be in the race, not necessarily on what they’ve accomplished in the past. John would have been up there had he raced….at least for a while. It was cool that Nick took his place and gave me something to think about as I ran away from the field.
See you at HR Fast ED! I’m already recovered….at least from the Moose! That story is in the next post!
Shit!! Already recovered?!?! Well… I predict you’ll better your PR by about an hour at HR - no one can match that! But don’t look back cause there will be 6 or 7 of us trying to keep it close…
Nice runnin’ at Big Horn! You’re hittin’ stride just in time for the race you do best!
Karl - Nice meeting you this weekend. Went into this race thinking I had a shot at giving you a run for your money, but soon gave up on that after I realized that keeping your pace much beyond Upper Sheep would ultimately have led to disaster for me.
Too bad John couldn’t make it out. I think he probably would have ended up giving you more of a run at it. I’ll get you next time … on a shorter course!
Good words Nick! When I asked you’re name on the first climb I knew I’d be battling with my “darkhorse”. You ran great, and smart to boot! 100 miles is a long ways! You had a great first 100 miler. You will beat me at shorter distances….I heard you have been running real well at the shorter stuff. I wouldn’t even be competition for you at shorter stuff, I do my best when it gets longer. Great race man! You will get me next time…maybe
Karl, No Anton in the top 22?
Casey, I’m quite sure Anton is injured, as well as Jon Olsen. I think if I had Anton on the list he would have been 3rd in the odds. Scott deserves #1, Mackey has run there before and is hungry. The only thing Anton doesn’t have at Western is experience. He certainly has what it takes to run sub 16. Noone should argue that. It’s just a shame he’s hurt (if I’m right). And I hope I’m wrong.
Thanks for the few that reminded me of Anita, I don’t know how I could have missed her, but she’s on there now.
I’m a little late with this, but Prudence L’Heureux is out of Western States after surgery for compartment syndrome (unless she’s already recovered and is being stealthy).
Karl, great odds. What about Brian Morrison? He’s been running very solid and has shown he can perform at WS (despite the little finish line problem in ‘07). Also, it’s too bad that Prudence isn’t going to run. She would’ve made the women’s field interesting.
Morrison will be in it. there are just so many fast guys I had to give the experienced ones more love.
And what about Wardian, he’ll be there too. I showed him no love….I don’t even know why. I just missed it. Look for him to be right in it.
Race strategy will play a big part in this one. Jurek has it down!
what’s the deal with calling your male predictions “men” and your female predictions “girls”?
0 scrapes
Hey “anon”. I can’t really say I’ve ever thought about that. Apparently there is something out there to offend everyone. Sorry that offends you. Maybe next time I’ll say “boys” and “women or ladies”. Would that make it better? I don’t think the boys will be offended. Run on….anon!