First off, this is a tough one. There are so many solid runners in this race, it could go to any of the top 10 I have listed below. I like to think experience will play a role in who takes home the cake!
The men:
Ulli Stiedl 5-2. No doubt Ulli is the fastest in the field when it comes to turnover. The man runs like a gazelle. He’s the only guy in the field this year that’s gone under 7 hours, won the innaugural and was a close second last year….he gets the nod from me again. Dave Mackey 3-1. Dave will take the place of Carpenter this year and stay right on Ulli’s heals if he’s not ahead of him to begin with. Dave’s incredible 7:51 at Miwok this year tells all of us he’s got it down at Marin and won’t lose the trail. He’s the man to dethrone Ulli, if Ulli is not on his game. Dave will be on his game. Tsuyoshi Kaburaki 4-1. 3rd last year and has to get the nod to place the same. He ran super strong at WS. What this tells me is he is a tough competitor and will dig deeper than anyone else if it comes down to a sprint up that last little hill nearing the finish line. Geoff Roes 9-2. What can we say about Geoff, he’s the “Ultrarunner of the Year” for 2009 (in my book) and after his Masochist performance, is probably not getting as much love on this list as he deserves. He broke Mackey’s record by about 20 minutes at MM, so he’s got it in him to pay for his Alaskan flight if he’s still on fire. My guess is that he’s still on fire. MIke Wardian 5-1. He’s kind of a mystery man to me, although I certainly know he’s capable of running up front….something will happen putting him 5th in the end. Sal Bautista 6-1. Sal won two NF 50 qualifiers, beating some tough comp, so if he’s fit he’ll be one of those guys not everyone up front recognizes, and this is somewhat of his home turf. Chikara Omina 7-1. Super fast at Helen Klein and over the past few years has been running strong. He’s the guy that might surprise us all if he has a good day. Leigh Schmitt 8-1. Another guy who ran well here last year, I think 5th. So like Geoff doesn’t get as much love as he should on this list, but certainly one who’ll be in it for the cash. He’s faltered a few times in races at the end, hopefully not at this one. Hal Koerner 9-1. Fresh off a 6:06 at JFK, so he’s got some speed, but his camera might slow him down. He claims to be this year’s front running photographer. Chris Lundstrom 10-1. I’ve been notified he’s a super fast guy form the upper midwest, but failed to get good google results when I looked, so he slips in the top 10.Other men looking to run well, but won’t make any money: Maybe they’ll win some shorts for the size of elephants in a age division category! 
Don’t forget I stumbled upon two other Japanese runners….Hidefumi Kimura, and Minehiro Yokoyama, who knows, they might be fast too. If they are wearing a billboard like Kaburaki, you can count on them being quick.
The Ladies:
Kami Semick 3-2. It’s her home turf, she’s the previous champion and is likely the “Ultrarunner of the Year” again. She’s fast, but will have lots of pressure on her, especially from the two listed below. She may end up being the richest NF athete in town when it’s all over. Caitlin Smith 3-1. Caitlin has what it takes to win this thing if the stars line up for her, but it’s hard to put her ahead of the other two. She ran well at Miwok, but was beaten by Kami. She’ll earn some cash. Joelle Vaught 4-1. Joelle is my sleeper to perform well here. Most won’t be watching her, and on a good day can run with the best of em’. She’ll look to squeeze out $1000 bucks for third. Lizzy Hawker 5-1. Fast girl that hasnt’ proved herself to me yet on this track, but like Joelle, she’s quick and could surprise the few girls ahead of her. Helen Cospolich 6-1. Helen doesn’t give herself enough credit and with 10,000′ of climbing here, it works with her strength. If she holds together the whole day, she’ll be thinking about $1000 bucks too. Chris Lundy 8-1. Don’t know much about her, so I give her some love on the list, we’ll see what happens. Anton mentions she’s just run a 2:40 marathon at Twin Cities. And beat Kami and Susannah there. I guess on Anton’s recommendation look for her to be the sleeper. Still, it’s 50 miles, not 26.2……..very different in my opinion. But that’s only worth a penny.
Just my two cents, worth about a penny!
Check out this flyover of the course, brought to you by “run scout”
Don’t forget the real mountain race, the Speedgoat 50k applications go online on January 1st. We know I”ll keep mentioning it. My prize money is no $10,000, but I”m working on $500 for the winners. It’s a mountain race with real vertical!
After this one, I won’t promise odds for the last 100 of the year….the Chimera 100 in Southern California. My last race and thankfully my last 100 of the year. This year was slim for me, only 7 100s. Next year we may almost double that….we’ll see.
Dead on odds.
Susannah is injured and out. Chris Lundy is a multiple-time Mountain Running Team member and just ran a 2:40 marathon in October…beating BOTH Kami and Susannah in that race (Twin Cities Marathon) As for Lizzy not being proven on this track: she WON it two years ago in sub-8hrs! Pretty proven, I’d say.
Also, Sal Bautista wasn’t 2nd at Miwok (that was Victor Ballesteros), BUT he HAS won two of the NF qualifying 50s this year (Bellingham and Wisconsin), beating Timmy Parr 30min both times.
My buddy Alex Nichols (paced me at Leadville…top-5 PP Ascent, 14:45 5K runner) will be making his ultra debut but he’s pretty undertrained for it…dude’s talented, though, so I think he’ll be on the top-5 bubble.
Nice Anton! See what I mean by doing it “off the cuff”.
I guess running sub 8 for Lizzy is proving herself there…..stand corrected on that too, but for some reason I never really see results for her. Perhaps I don’t look around enough, eh?
Great points! thanks!
Thanks for the info on Susannah, that’s a bummer!
Sal Bautista and Victor Ballesteros, aren’t they the same guy?
Alex Nichols? 14:45 is a quick 5k, but like you said, if he’s undertrained, my guess would be he’ll go out with the leaders, it’ll feel easy…as it should, the start the long slow fade by mile 20. 50 miles is 16+ times longer than 5k, and alot longer than the PP ascent. Top 5 bubble is pushing it, at least I think so.
It would be cool to see though.
I stand corrected! Excellent.
Good picks (as usual) with what you have to work with. The way this sport is gaining depth, I wouldn’t be suprized to see a couple of “who the hell is he?!” guys in the top 5.
The match up between Dave and Uli is epic and Roes will be dosee-doing with them up front too. Have a gut feeling about Caitlin winning.
California could use a couple of $10k winners to help with the economy.
I might have to peel away from work and slip over to the finish line for a bit.
I’d wish you luck at Chimera but you don’t need it, so I’ll just say have a great time and I wouldn’t count you out of UROY just yet.
No doubt California could use the money!
Geoff has UROY! I honestly think I did more and was consistently solid all year and should place second in the voting. Geoff’s performances were over the top with HURT, Wasatch and Masochist. His Bear run was great too, but like alot of my 100s, they go unrecognized because he won by such a big margin.
Let’s not count out Mike Wardian for UROY, he did alot too, not as much in the mountains, but ran some great races and should get some respect for that.
I hope it’s warm at Chimera, it’s funny, but my legs feel 20 years older when it’s cold. I start running daily….looking like I just left the geriatric (sp?) ward.
Any way I look at it, it’s been a great year for me. I never thought I would perform this well after the AT. Maybe I should do that again.
You are right, so many people in the race that are fast, they’ll be alot of “who the hell is he” going on.
So glad to hear I’m not the only one who starts runs in the cold hobbling like a drunk barefoot sailor.
The AT seems to have been one of the few things that grind-ed you up to an unforeseen next level.
Kaburaki…he is looking forward to racing at NF50.
and also yes, Minehiro Yokoyama North Face guy too.
I saw him 2 weeks ago, good shape, very fast.
Nice info Tetsuro! I had a feeling there were other guys from you’re side of the world!
I’m off to run like a drunken sailor….love the analogy, it’s so true.
Chris Lundy is out, not running.
I have Caitlin on the list for the 50k.
But I’m all for her running the 50-mile. I’m in the 50k and I’m sure she’d run the 50 mile faster than I run a 50k. That girl is smoking fast. Did you see her win the Nike Women’s Marathon in trail shoes? Great stuff.
Sorry you won’t be there, it should be fun!
Canadian Jason Loutitt could be right up there with a crack at a top 5 finish. He has strong mt running background, and some ultra experience too. Ran a 2:24 marathon earlier this year. Guaranteed he’ll go out hard.
Caitlin is also on the list for the 50 mile. She either transferred, or there’s another CS…..doubt that.
She’s running the 50 mile. The NF list is a little shifty, there’s also two Kubaraki’s on the men’s list. What’s up with that, there can’t be two of them. 
I am in the 50 miler, but there is another Caitlin Smith in the 50k. The first time I saw that I thought oh shit I signed up for the wrong distance, but then I realized she was 4 years younger! So no doubt I think there is another Caitlin Smith!
Karl,
Can’t believe you outed me! I was trying to fly under the radar. Going to be fun to watch. Look for AJW blazin’ in for a top-20 finish.
Nice! Looks like a great race lined up for Saturday. Watch out for my training partner Joe Grant. He’s been running really well lately logging some pretty serious miles. He placed top 20 in Mont Blanc last year and has some fast Waldo 100k finishes. He got off course last year and has some redemption for NF San Fran! Enjoy the weekend!
Sweet! now my goal is beat caitlin smith. hahaha.
Hey AJW! I didn’t out you at all, that 5:14 was very impressive. I can’t run that, and I won’t be trying any time soon!
I would be running for top 20 as well. Last year I ran 8:20 and was 20th, so there’s the number. You can do that easily.
Thanks Caitlin for the clarification! Wonder is she’s fast, wouldn’t it be wild if Caitlin Smith won both races. They’d call you “Wonder Woman”.
Have a great run out there!
Nice odds Karl.. But I’ll be the first to say it .. No one replaces Matt Carpenter!
I think you should add “Bookie” to your list of titles Karl so we can throw some cash down on these odds. My money would be on Mackey, though I understand he’s no longer in CO, there’ve been a lot of winners from this state lately…
should be a fun one. wish you were going to be there karl. my guess is 5 guys will go sub 7 hrs. if the new course runs about the same as the old one that is. i ran 7:12 there last year with a very mediocre race at best. i know i can go a lot faster and i also agree with your odds that at least 3 guys are likely to go faster than me, i’ll just be looking to make the unlikely happen.
Go Goeff! I think it will be Uli and Mackey battling it out together until they get surprised by Roes deciding to turn it on in the latter stages as usual. While everyone else hangs onto their pace he just speeds up! I’m sure he just wishes this race was twice as long, on the trails and with a lot more elevation (which is why I understand Karl’s ranking)
UROY for Geoff for sure!!!
i love to look at your site & read the top ultra runners talk about how slow they run, your site is always a good read, good luck to all running races before end of the year.
Dave, yes you are right! Noone replaces Matt, he’s the best and will always be the best at mountain running. When I was at PP in 1993 and saw him beat Ricardo Mejia running 3:16, I was so blown away, it was mind boggling for everyone to watch, and then Ricardo came in at 3:24 (or something like that). It was sick! You can’t replace him, but you CAN run with Ulli! And Ulli beat Matt the first time. Geoff will be in there too, you guys are gonna have a stressful day!
In a fun way of course!
Geoff, yah, it was tough to put you where I have you on the list. Like I said, it was a tough one to do these odds. I really have no idea about Kubaraki. The few races I’ve seen him run, he’s been able to dig deep at the end. Not that you haven’t but it impressed me a bit, so I went with it. I hope you run super fast and cash in. You certainly deserve it. I don’t know about the “unlikely” happening, run just like Masochist and it will happen.
Not sure about 5 people under 7 hours, only cuz’ there’s likely going to be a few “blow-ups” at that pace…hopefully not, but we’ll see.
Take it from Matt….”Go out hard, when it hurts, speed up”
Good luck to all, I’ll expect a call right afterwards! Keep me informed, I doubt the NF will have this posted directly after the race….with their track record.
Sportstats is doing the timing, so results should be up pretty quick.
http://www.sportstats.ca/race-calendar.php?lang=eng
Is anyone liveblogging it?
Have fun everyone…should be a blast.
I read on Dave Mackey’s blog that he has the fastest descent in the PPM history. Of course Matt has the CR and ascent record, I think the top five times too. You recently said you thought he was the best downhill runner. Maybe it’s Mackey but then again he was trying to catch someone. I do not think Matt ever had to catch anyone to win the PPM. How about a PP descent race? That would be sick, just double the ER staff.
Here’s to a great race at the NF 50. Too many great runners to root for one, so Go Geoff, Uhli, Dave, Leigh…….
Have fun at the Chimera. I’m looking towards you breaking the CR at the HR next year. AJW calls it the CW vs. CCW advantage.
Has Dave run down faster than Matt’s 1:15 ish? I guess so! Nice! My best is 1:27.01. Slow and pedestrian.
Matt never has to chase anyone, but Ricardo was chasing him in 1993, and he had to be thinking about that.
You might more than double the ER staff for a descent race, and add a few helicopters to hang out at Barr Camp, there would be alot of carnage if there was a race like that. Insurance would be pricy!
I still don’t think the CW vs. CCW is much different at HR. And, I”m not sure if I’ll run there next year. Still trying to figure it out. Perhaps Geoff Roes will take Kyle’s record down. He’s the best candidate right now as far as I’m concerned….if he gets in.
AJW hasn’t run the CW direction yet, so I don’t think he understands the differences. yah, it’s ramps and steeps, but it really depends who the runner is. Who knows? Only time will tell.
Since we’re briefly on the subject, this just pulled from Matt’s site:
To understand true dominance, though, look to Carpenter. His 1993 Marathon record of 3:16:39 still stands, as does his 2:01:06 Ascent record, which he established on the front end of that 14,115-foot summit climb. His descent record (1:15:33 in 1993) also remains intact.
This was from 2008, so now I’ll go check results from last year.
This came from http://www.ultradavemackey.com/
2007
Pikes Peak Marathon. 2nd place. 3:50 (fastest descent ever recorded in the race at 1:20:31)
Must be an oversight. Overall 3:50 is a long way back from 3:16:39
Karl’s right, I have only done HR one direction. That said, I think it’ll be faster this year (at least for me). And, I have always thought Mackey’s downhill at Pike’s when he was chasing Matt that year was sick. That’s a big reason I had him picked for the win at WS this past year.
Nice weather here in SF!
I think I was a little sloppy with my numbers. Checking again, the Goat is right, Matt holds the records for overall, ascent & descent but not the top five times. A lot of fast times 1993 - 1997.
After this race I think we should look at the various blogs, analyze the results and determine who was the biggest ’sandbagger’ going into the race. As a matter of fact I think there should be an Ultrarunner Sandbagger of the Year Poll on someone’s web site. Heck, maybe I’ll pull one together…
Man I gotta stop checking running blogs.. bad bad habit..
Re: Tim; “I read on Dave Mackey’s blog that he has the fastest descent in the PPM history.”
I don’t ever recall writing this on my blog and I am not sure how it got on there (actually Tim wrote the resume part of my blog so he may have erred). My best descent is 1:20 or so and Matt’s is 1:15:xx. Once again, Matt is better..
Carpenter is ONE of the best. Let’s not forget Jonathan Wyatt. Would have been nice to see both of them go at it head-to-head a few times, but oh well. Lets not call anyone great because many of the American and European “MUZUNGOS’” are finally realizing what the Kenyans and Ethiopians can do if they really want to be serious about the Mountain stuff. They are doing to Wyatt’s times what Wyatt was doing to the rest of the field last the last few years.
Good to see some Midwest love. Sal destroyed the field at both NFC races. My buddy Chris Lundstrom is no slouch either. He already made his Olympic marathon trials qualifier again this year at Twin Cities Marathon. This will be his first 50m though. Definitely the fastest in the field right with Uli and would destroy anyone in any other race or perhaps with a bit of training adjustment. However he is no rookie to running 50km training runs and ran his first 50km race this year smashing the 50km record at Superior, so he can run technical shit if he has too, and Superior Hiking Trail is as technical as it gets.
There will be carnage no doubt.
Dave, Sorry to mention the 1:15+ descent from Matt. For once I was right with the number. I tend to be off a bit sometimes.
I just happened to be there that year and when he ran by me on his descent he was going so fast, once I turned around to watch him for a minute, he was just gone daddy gone. Then Ricardo came by at top speed too. It was an awesome sight to watch.
Wynn! Absolutely yes, with Jonathan Wyatt. I may be speaking a little too soon, but I think Matt’s resume is much bigger than Jonathan’s. The only problem is, Matt is older, so Jonathan has some time to add to his. Wyatt is freakin’ sick. Mt. Washington is another good indicator. Although, “only” one hill, the Mt. Washington hill climb brings out alot of great climbers. Wyatt’s time there is 2-3 minutes faster than Matt. And as I’ve run that race about 10 times (when I was young, and a best ascent of 1:12 ish), it’s a tough 4650′ of climb in 7.6 miles. It brings out the best of the best in hill running abilities.
Kenyans? Still waiting for one of those 2:07 marathoners to show up at a 100 mile trail race. Until they do, they got nothing but nothing on us. But, we know they’d be good at it. Shoulda, Coulda, woulda……didn’t
AJW, Dave was a great pick to win Western this year. Dave just hasn’t nailed it yet. And I think I recall Dave was sick, how random was that. Sick during the summer months. The running gods have something against Dave at Western.
Dave, third times a charm?
Not sure if I’ll be at Hardrock yet, I’m still deciding if I’ll do that 2200 mile trek again. It makes Hardrock look like a 10k. Silly!
Dave, get off the internet and get some sleep man! no more blogging for you!
Joe, you’re not saying, I’m a sandbagger are you? I could use some sand for my horseshoe pits…whatever that means.
Dave’s absolutely correct; the editorial error on his site is mine. It’s corrected now. Personally, I think, standing at the top together and racing down, Dave takes it (the man runs downhill with the recklessness and flexibility of a teenager).
I meant no disrespect to anyone, you guys are all awesome. 1:20 is a kick butt time! “flexibility of a teenager”!!
I just happen to be a numbers geek fascinated with ultras who has too much time on my hands. Joe Kulek is funny in a hardcore way.
Yes, Joe is funny in a hardcore way. And, last time I checked, he still has the Grand Slam record.
Not to sound like an arrogant arse, but I’ll play devil’s advocate from what I have experienced in the few short years I have been running in regard to ultras and marathon-to sub marathon distances. Running with friends here like Jason Finch, Mike Reneau (15th at NYC) and Ryan Meissen to name just a few are sickly fast. Really makes you humble and faster at the same time. I’m not saying that every fast marathoner is going to be lights out at ultras, but people in the ultra community have to be really freakin’ naive to not realize how many sub 2:20ish marathoners and lower that are out there that could tear it up in the ultra scene with some slight training alterations. Shoulda, woulda, coulda, I understand that, but when you have the speed you use it. What’s keeping most fast guys from running 100milers…. well lets start with a silly buckle and no prize money to begin with, and very little competition. hell of a lot more likely for a fast marathoner to adjust to win an ultra, than most ultra folks to adjust to running a fast marathon. I could go on, but what’s the point. For instance in my mind a top 20 at a major marathon far exceeds any ultra win. Just my 2 cents. I’m not right or wrong. main thing is just go run, and do what you like best.
get after it this weekend. what is this #6! damn.
-wynn
From Wynn:
“Running with friends here like Jason Finch, Mike Reneau (15th at NYC) and Ryan Meissen to name just a few are sickly fast”.
How much cash did they win at the NYC marathon? Did they get a medal around their neck? I got those at 5k’s when I was a kid.
Bring those boys out to the Speedgoat 50k! I’ll comp them all, they can sleep in my backyard, it’ll be cheap. Let’s see what they can do here. And…….there will be some prize money. (It ain’t no NF50 prize money, but something)
“What’s keeping most fast guys from running 100milers…. well lets start with a silly buckle and no prize money to begin with, and very little competition.”
I don’t think you should mention “little competition” when they haven’t even gone there yet. They have no idea….yet. If you don’t think Mackey, Roes, Jurek, Koerner, Carpenter, Meltzer, James, and a large number of other great trail runners can’t hang with a few fast road marathoners at 100 miles…you would be a little misled my man.
“people in the ultra community have to be really freakin’ naive to not realize how many sub 2:20ish marathoners and lower that are out there that could tear it up in the ultra scene with some slight training alterations”
Until, they prove it…I’ll say it again. Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda, didn’t
Only Ulli Steidl,(and probably a few others I can’t think of off the top of my head) so far, has proven he can tear it up at ultras. But guess what, Ulli is afraid of the 100 mile distance, well, maybe not afraid, but he won’t go there, cuz’ he’s got better things to do.
“Do what you like, that’s all that matters”.
And stay away from the vulgar language man, I’m just gonna moderate it anyway.
Plain and simple, it’s cash. Kenyans train in the mountains, but they don’t do ultras in the US because no moolachos. I think many top US marathoners don’t cross over because they may think they’ll lose speed (and potential cash) running over mountains. Not only Uli, but Wardian is another example of a guy who, in one year, runs 15 (yes 15) 2:25 marathons, also competes at States (19:xx), and finishes top 10 in world 50K and 100K, plus top ten at Marathon des Sables stage race, etc. He’s one to emulate, a pure runner who excels at all distances, has a full time job and kids, and yes, he does fly all over on sponsors’ dimes, but he doesn’t try to specialize, has no fear, and enjoys it all. Those who don’t try all the venues are missing out in my opinion. And don’t even get me started on those who drop out if they can’t win….
Oh, and also finished 2nd to Anton at White River 50 mile, after winning last year. I should be Wardian’s agent, I guess…hmmm, time to get off the box and go for a run :). Oh, and I didn’t mean to imply his flights were comped by NF, etc., just his entries…
Michael Wardian just ran a 2:34 marathon, pretty slow for him BUT he was pushing his son in a stroller. The worst part is he lost to another guy pushing his son in a stroller.
http://www.route66marathon.com/
not to kick a dead horse,or meant to ruffle feathers as these seem to appear in text form, but 9th American at NYC is good enough for $2,000 bucks and not to mention an automatic qulifying time for Olympic trials. I’d say that’s worth it.
I’m going to step in his shoes for sec. and pick a race I did this year for a comparison if you can even call it that. more like laughable. The aforementioned above compared to Kettle Moraine 100km CR. Like comparing a rotten apple to a juicy navel. Now Comrades, that’s a different story. Now your looking at the top 5 times 5:20ish-5:40ish over a hilly course for 55 miles. Now that’s stout. Then again those guys sickly fast too. Sub 2:20 no doubt. In fact the CR on both courses, who recently retired has around a 2:09 PR and I believe 13th at Athens (.)
Just a sampling. Not an all out sandbagging effort but no doubt teasers. Can’t find any good ones for the stellar women out there. We should start collecting a few more then cast a vote for Sandbag Quote of the year.
‘While sitting on my couch watching Mr. Woods win again, a yellowjacket decided he’d sting me. This ain’t good for me, my arm is swollen, I broke out in hives, and my arm itches like hell.’
‘I have no idea if I’m ready to race a 50 miler this weekend. Honestly I haven’t even really thought about it… I’m not in perfect shape right now.’
With all of this on my mind, on July 31, I decided to pull myself from the Leadville 100… In telling folks that I wouldn’t be running Leadville, I consistently added something along the lines of “unless I have an epiphany.” So what was that epiphany?
‘The work is done! Might have been a tad anxious this week but I feel good and healthy! I don’t like to talk about Hard Rock all too much…’
Uhh, so top twenty at a marathon with a 2:20-2:25 gets you more than a belt buckle?
Yah, that one about the bee sting is good!
And what was this post about?
Joe, you keep working on the “Sandbagger Quotes of the Year”. It’s sure to be a winner! ….awesome!
While I was out running this morning, I was thinking about this round of comments and almost fell over laughing.
We talked about the NF race, it turned into who the best runner is, and if it were a fast road marathoner, or an ultrarunner.
Or if the Kenyans would be great Ultrarunners…..
And why Kenyans generally don’t race Ultras….
Next question….Why?…….Money of course is always the answer.
And why will Ultrarunning never be a big sport?…..Because the media has a tough time exposing it without boring the crowds.
I would consider this conversation……Just another loop course!
I may have outdone myself on that comment, I’m still laughing.
Oh, oh, oh.. Joe, I think I know who’s responsible for quote number three. That’d be me. Not the all out best performance by a sandbagger, but a pretty good sandbagging effort and a pretty good Leadville effort for my ability level.
The epiphany? There were a couple. Besting AJW at a cross-county 5k, drinking beers with AJW after said 5k, and running better than expected at the Jupiter Peak Steeplechase a few days later.
Eric, if I decide not to run the 50 mile on Saturday, I’ll tweet it live @iRunFar . If I do run, my girlfriend is likely to be posting updates at the same Twitter address.
The great thing about this string of comments comparing ultra and marathon distance participants is that the ultra folks don’t seem to have the hatred and lack of respect for fast marathoners, unlike some shorter distance guys who completely smack the ability and skill of ultrarunning and runners. Commendable and respectful bunch of comments here on Speedgoat’s blog. Oh, and fast marathoners, don’t take Karl’s generous bait on running the Speedgoat 50k - you’ll hate him and yourself 5 hours into it, bleeding and parched with swollen quads and no end in sight…
I agree wholeheartedly. I am an overweight back of the packer, trying like the dickens to improve, who gets listened to by guys like you(TT, I think), Karl & AJW. Carpenter writes books and has a club he mentors. Karl slowed his trek from ME to GA last year to spend a few sincere minutes on the trail in NY with me and I had the thrill of watching him quickly with great agility hoof it up a huge hill and out of sight. It is very hard to put in words but the combination of determination, dedication and brotherhood is not found anywhere like it is among the huge majority of the ultrarunning community. My bet is that we all have favorites on the road too. Ryan Hall and Jenny Barringer are two of mine.
Hey FF!
Well said ” ultra folks don’t seem to have the hatred and lack of respect for fast marathoners, unlike some shorter distance guys who completely smack the ability and skill of ultrarunning and runners”
I think that sums up the ultra community very well. Many people I talk to that run road races 10k’s, marathons, and even moreso, triathlons, the people tend to be all about competition, with elbows flying. At Ultras we just lollygag (even the fastest guys) at the start, then go out an enjoy a full day of running. Then we hang out afterwards and cheer on everyone else, and laugh at the adventure we just had.
Even the 5k I ran last year, noone hung around to cheer, they just wanted to get that medal and head home.
Ultrarunning is a different sport, the one I like the most!
Nothing like watching the last 3-5 hours of the Wasatch 100 where these runners come in, sometimes sideways, and happier than they’ve ever been to get it done.
And look at the Leadville 100. I was sitting about 400 meters from the finish line this year, and watched the last hour of the run. Half of these people were balling, it was pretty inspiring really.
sad really… this is like Christianity… you have a lot of different types of churches that all believe in the same main premise and do the same things but go at each other over small differences.
we’re all runners…
some ’sprint’, some run, some jog.
some run up, some run flat, some run roads while some run dirt
bottom line… we are all runners.
Well said Stack!
I like all distances so i agree. Remember, playing Devil’s advocate. On the same token though it should all be put in to perspective.
-wynn
On the subject of why more sub 2:20 guys don’t run ultras, it’s really not just the lack of money. You can’t just assume that anyone is going to do equally well as distance increase. From running with GBTC and the Central Mass Striders, I knows many guys that SHOULD crush me at trail races, or SHOULD run faster at marathons, based on half marathon or even 20 miler times.
I think people also need to remember that there was a time in the 70’s and 80’s when the U.S. had many more fast marathoners, and some were running road ultras, extrememely quickly. There is only a certain percentage of marathoners that do well at ultras, and enjoy them. We still don’t have a wealth of fast marathoners in the U.S. right now, so it’s not surprising to me that there aren’t a lot of sub 2:20 guys running ultras. It’s also possible that we aren’t aware of races by faster runners that don’t go well…
In terms of trail ultras, there are several additional reasons why you don’t see more fast marathoners winning ultras.
1. Hills. Mike Wardian is pretty solid at the marathon, and he doe OK in road ultras, but on hilly courses, he has been beaten by guys he would destroy at a road 50k-100k.
2. Technical trail running. Even people that are skilled a moderately technical trails can struggle with the most difficult trail ultras.
3. Trail endurance. Some can have both technical trail running skills, marathon or ultra endurance, but still fall apart at trail ultras due to lack of trail endurance.
This is a good spot for my favorite trail-related email of all time. It’s from the race director of the Escarpment, a somewhat technical 30k in the Catskill mountains of NY.
Hi Ben,
I wanted to point out something that you may not be aware of. After reading your story on the Escarpment you made mention to the small group of enthusiasts that are even aware of the Escarpment. But I am not sure if you know how many good runners have run this course and some of the accomplishments of those runners.
Over the 28 years of the race, some 20 or more sub 2:20 marathoners (maybe that would be sub 2:22) marathoners have run this course. Some of them even have excellent trail credentials. For instance, the record you broke was Matt Cull’s. Matt qualified numerous times for the USA team for the World Mountain Championships. He took pretty much 10th in the series of races he ran one summer (in the world) feeling as though the trails were much smoother that what he excelled at…. On that same team was Dave Dunham. Dave was an incredible trail runner and at the worlds got 2nd in all of the races. The one time that he ran the Escarpment (1991) he finished in 3:02:54 (Fargo won that year in 2:47:51). Dave had run 2:19 the year prior to that….. In the late 70’s and early 80’s Ed Stable from West Point ran. He had run 2:17 at Boston that year and finished 7th overall… a good trail runner. We didn’t have the support we have now, but he still wasn’t going 2:45…..
One of my favorites was David Clark from England. He had run many of the English Fell running races. He was a master (40 plus) the year he ran. That spring he had won the masters division at the London Marathon in 2:18 and that fall he won the master’s division at the NYC Marathon in 2:18… He managed 3:24. I believe he ran it in 1985…. I got a fabulous letter from him the following week. He was in Ct. and ran an 11.5 mile race there and was disappointed because he barely broke 60 minutes and struggled to get 2nd overall. I wrote back reminding him that nobody else in that race had run the Escarpment that year. I went under 3:20 in that race so ran with David in the early miles. I am here to tell you that fellow fell numerous times coming off Windham. He was cut up some and when I asked how he was doing he said, “fine, just a little fall, one of which will be of many to come”…. I liked his spirit.
I know I am digressing here, but let me tell you one of my favorite
stories…. Charlie Trayer came the year after he ran the Olympic Trials. He called me and wanted appearance money. The course record was maybe 3:06 at the time. Charlie was very confident and told me that I should pay him to come and that someone should be proud to expense an Olympic Trails Marathoner. I told him I ran this out of a shoe box and there was no such funds. He told me he was going to come break the course record. When I asked him why he thought so he said, “Let’s face it, you guys aren’t running too fast up there.” At that point I told him he could stay at my house…. He came up and was talking running 2:30’s… Anyway, he went out with the defending champion (Pete Crisis). I passed Charlie coming down Windham (we had little if any water that year and the trail was grown in a lot)…. He wasn’t having fun. He ran 3:40…… I saw him that fall at the Maryland Marathon and he wouldn’t talk to me. He did come back some years later with a new attitude. Told me that he wanted to come back to see if he hated the trail as much as he remembered. He did, running around 4 hours, but he smiled that year….. Anyway, I don’t mean to go on and on. What I am trying to point out is that your record is not soft. There have been some very good trail runner who have run this race. Herb Tanzer from California ran once. Did okay, finished fourth in 3:17 (I was third in 3:08 or something). Herb won Western States two years later….
I think at some point “body type” has to come into play in this discussion. As Ben Nephew said, Wardian crushes people at 100K on roads, and gets beaten at hilly ultras. Although there are many variables involved (fatigue from over-racing for one), could it be that Wardian’s long stride and height (6 ft) pushes him past people on road ultras but leaves him vulnerable on hills? Guys like Carpenter, Uli, Roes, etc. all seem to be 5′8 135 pounds and able to excel on hills. Where does this leave Karl? Seems to be a hybrid of the two types? Which gives him that hill ability but also some kick over long distance? Not sure this is a viable thread, but it is interesting to debate…
And of course it has been argued that Wardian simply doesn’t train enough on hills (living in Arlington, VA) and that it has nothing to do with body type.