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Speedgoat Odds, Bandera 100k 18

Jan2

OK, so this will be the first of many “Speedgoat Odds” predictions for races in 2012.  The Bandera 100k looks like a good start, so here we go…..

1.  Dave Mackey  3-2.  Dave goes in as the favorite being the record holder, and is gonna have to run fast to win, but his track record is pretty stout on courses 100k or shorter.  After NOT going to JFK and the NF50, Mackey’s legs have got to be itchin to run hard and he will do just that. 

2. Nick Clark  3-1.  Nick just put in some speedwork, winning his infamous “Vertical Beer Mile”.  I would bet his tired summer legs are behind him, along with everyone else but Dave.

3.  Tim Olson  4-1.  Tim has been gaining momentum the past few years and is just on the edge of breaking through with a big win.  His NF50 performance shows he’s in great form, and the Bandera course may end up being to his liking.

4.  Dave James  5-1.  I haven’t seen Dave race much recently.  I know he was planning on running in San Fran, but didn’t make the start line, so he’s gotta be fresh, question is…..how fresh?  He’s always fast and fearless.  A smart run would put him on the podium.

5.  Todd Braje  6-1.  Todd has a graceful stride, and if it were 50 miles on smooth terrain, he’d be higher on the list.  He’s probably the fastest guy in the field, but the technicality and distance will wear on him by the race’s end.

6.  Jason Schlarb  8-1.  Jason ran a great race for somewhat of a “rookie” at the NF50.  He passed me in full stride and continued to gain solid ground at the NF50, but faded a little near the end. He’s the sleeper to hit the podium.

7.  Dylan Bowman  10-1.  Yet another young “sleeper”.  He’s had a great season with a fast Leadville, fast at the Antelope Island 50 (6:15).  So he’s in the mix for sure, but will he hang with some of the best in the business, that remains to be seen.  He can, just a matter of how long.

8.  Yassine Diboun  12-1.  8th, really? For Yassine?  He’s in tough company, he’s really fast too, but my guess is he’ll run smart and pick up some carnage if there’s any left on the trail in front of him.

9.  Justin Ricks  14-1.  I haven’t seen Justin in too many races lately, so he’s either been injured, or just under the radar lately.  In the past he’s run some fast races, so he’s got the speed, but will he hang, probably not by the time mile 50 comes around.

10.  Steven Moore  16-1.  More of a local fast guy, but again, tough company, this one’s gonna be a burner, so he’d better be on his game to stick with this peleton.

11.  Neal Lucas and Paul Terranova 20-1.  I would throw a few bucks on these two, just for the record. I”ve been informed from Joe the RD, that Neal is real fast, but could blow, and Paul’s other half is quick too, making him speedy for sure. 

12.  THE REST—-have low numbers in the teens, and I”m sure one or two from the non $20 fee runners will end up top 10, cuz’ there always are a few.

The Ladies Race:

1.  Liza Howard  3-1.  How could NOT put Liza at the front?  She’s the best in Texas, it’s a big state, and the race is in Texas.  And…she almost beat me at Rocky Raccoon last year.  :-)  She’s no rookie and the course could suit her well. I’m not really sure how well she does at technical running, Darcy is probably the best at that, but her speed outweighs the rest, so we’ll see.

2.  Cassie Scallon  7-2.  Didn’t she just win JFK?  Yup, I believe so. She’s gotta be coming off a “high” from that. More than likely, she’s starting a string of being in peak form, and if she didn’t race much in between JFK and this dance, she’ll be running to win, and should easily get a podium spot.

3.  Darcy Africa  4-1.  Darcy always runs fast.  I would love to see here breakthrough and win a race that’s not really a mountain run.  Again, this one is faster, without BIG hills, so I’m not sure if she’ll hang early with a faster pace. She tends to run on her own.  She will, however, pick up any carnage…if there is any, cuz’ she’s the most experienced in the field for sure.

4.  Pam Smith  6-1.  I believe Pam killed it at Miwok a few years ago?  She caught me off guard at that one, this one will likely be the same gig.  If she’s fit, she’ll be in it to win it.

5.  Kierra Henninger  12-1. She’ll wrap up the top 5, with that sunny California smile.  I don’t think she’s fast enough to run up front, but she will do well

So there you have it, my first “Odds” of 2012.  I”m bummed I’m not there.  I almost went down to see what I had, but I’ve had a slight case of Neuritis in my left toes, so I decided to wait till Rocky Raccoon, so Ian Sharman can crush me next month.  I like 100 milers anyway, not necessarily 100k’s,  it’s not far enough. :-)

Keep in mind the Speedgoat 50k entry went online yesterday morning, it’s filling at a standard rate of one per 5 minutes (something like that).  Keep checking back if you want to run a HARD race….or maybe walk a HARD race that is. 

Speedgoatkarl’s 100 mile blend is roasting daily over in Indiana, pick some up today and enjoy some fine joe.

 

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18 Comments

  1. Greg W. says:

    Liza Howard also has home course advantage at Bandera. She lives in San Antonio a little over an hour from the course and goes out there periodically for training weekends. Definitely an advantage.

  2. karlmeltzer says:

    Anton is not on the starters list. I have been in communicano with the RD, he’s not running.

  3. solarweasel says:

    ahh yes, let the 2012 season begin.

    good luck to all :)

  4. One thing Liza has on her side is that she knows the Bandera trails extremely well. This is rough, rocky Texas singletrack at its finest!

  5. CraigR says:

    The men’s field is pretty stacked. Nice! On the women’s side of things it will certainly be a battle between Liza, Cassie(ran “near” her at Glacial Trail 50K this past October – She is fast!) and Darcy. Tough course as I’ve heard with the rocks and cacti :).

  6. EJW says:

    A bit off the subject, but I just ran Across the Years last weekend in Glendale, AZ. You would have been impressed. I saw at least 20 – 25 pairs of Hoka’s moving around the mile lap on the first day. People were really happy with them.

  7. ChrisR says:

    Liza did break the course record by 58 min at Bandera last year so she handles the rocks really well. The question is how well is she recovered from JJ. I really think Pam is one to watch. She is running well. Was only 11 minutes behind Liza last year at this race. 100k is her distance. (Sub 8 at Mad City and won Miwok). I would have her ahead of Cassie (has she run a race this long) and Darcy.

    Neal Lucas is a young local guy who tore it up this summer at 50k and 50 mile. Beat both Steve Moore and Paul. Great talent but has never ran this long. Could blow up or shock the UR world.

  8. dave says:

    love your posts Karl, sorry I missed you in SF. I juat ran a little marathon, isnt that speedwork for us? although a beer mile sounds so much more fun. I expect at leat 5 of us to go sub 8 hours out there Saturday, you would like this course, it isnt really runnable in many places :) lots of rocks and cactus and rollers

  9. James Brennan says:

    Karl, I think Nick Clark, Tim Olson and Dave Mackey have the front 3 seats locked up…however, Im going to throw in my buddy Brad Reed from outside Boston for top 10.

  10. James Brennan says:

    ok, scratch that…he pulled out of the entrants list. nice odds, karl

  11. karlmeltzer says:

    Not seeing much love for Braje…..Is he not running?

  12. Sean says:

    Cassie ran the Tahoe 72 miler overall last September, setting a women’s c.r. for that event and coming within 7 min. of the all-time female record for around the lake. So…yes, she has run a race at least 100 km.

  13. JFrench says:

    Tim Olson came in at 8:28:38 with Mackey, Joe Uhan, and Bowman in second, third, and fourth. Nick Clark finished in 5th after David James dropped due to medical reasons. Liza Howard finished second to Cassie Scallon. Liza was in the lead for the first half but was caught at the turn around maintained a comfy lead to take the win.

  14. Hey Karl, I snuck in the men’s top 10 . . . You may vaguely remember me as the “rabbit” of 2011 MMT fame, who totally blew up, but hung in there and finished in a little under 32 hours anyway. Now who can’t run on rocks? ;) (Think I’ll also sneak in the Speedgoat 50K while I’m at it . . . ;) )

  15. CJ says:

    Karl, was that your mug on the cover of the latest Trail Runner? If so, congrats

  16. Shannon MacGregor says:

    Gotta back dave here. the man’s been stackin’ miles on the daily, and ate Beast of Burden like it was a midnite snack.