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Time for Barfanut 17

Mar13

So, once again, it’s been forever for me to put together a new post. The Chuckanut 50k is quite stacked, so I figured I’d better get on it.  Not gonna do odds on this one, cuz” way too many guys and and gals in the field I don’t know. I still think I can guess or “predict” who will win it,or at least come close.   It’s pretty clear that we have two real fast road marathoners in Max King and Jason Loutit. Both these guys have tremendous speed and will do some damage on the first 6 miles and the last 6.  However, it’s not all a dirt road race.  Max, at least in my opinion has a better mountain running background than Jason.  Jason won HURT and ran a decent time there, but HURT is a slog fest with lots of hiking.  Max is fast on everything, so we’ll see.  Max will get his real mountain running skills test when he runs at the Speedgoat 50k in July.  So, anyway, here’s my picks….without odds. 

1.  Max King–WENT THE WRONG FREAKIN’ WAY, WAS LEADING

2.  Jason Loutit–9TH

3.  Mike Wolfe–13TH

4.  Dave Mackey–7TH

5.  Adam Campbell –WON IT

6.  Hal Koerner–16TH

7.  Tim Olson–11TH

8.  Nico Mermoud

9.  Joe Grant

10.  Jason Schlarb–3RD

Others:  Jeff Browning, Aaron Heidt, Justin Ricks…..and a slew of others

Most of those guys above are mountain runners obviously.  I list them up front because generally speaking,  mountain runners prevail most of the time, not to mention I don’t know any faster road guys.  Because I do these predictions off the cuff, if I haven’t raced em’ myself, I don’t know strengths and weaknesses. I know most of the guys above and what they’re good at.  

The ladies race is nothing like the mens’, so here’s my top 6:

1. Ellie Greenwood of course–WON IT

2.  Joelle Vaught–3RD

3.  Pam Smith–4TH

4.  Jodee Adams-Moore–2ND

5.  Jenny Capel

6.  Nicole Sellon

That’s about all I got with these predictions. I”m sure I’ll be off on quite a few, but not too far.

Speedgoat 50k registration is filling at record pace this year, about 100 spots left for a “real mountain race”,  Euro style.  Come enjoy the pain if you so desire, that’s one thing I know I”m right about. :-)

And, if you need one last pickup?  Go order up some of my fine coffee blend.  “Speedgoatkarl’s 100 mile blend”  Good for 100 miles,or less if that’s too far.

 

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17 Comments

  1. David T. says:

    I think Adam C. will place in the top 3.

  2. Scott S says:

    I see that there a few spots open for the Speedgoat 50k coming up in July. I ran the Pike Peak Marathon last August. Since you’ve run them both, I was hoping that you could help me calibrate the Speedgoat 50k to the PPM. Thx!

  3. Derrick says:

    I think Jason Loutit has a little better mountain running background than what you might be giving him credit for. 2nd at World Trail Championships last year. Jason has also run for Canada at World Mountain Running Championships. Great blend of speed/strength and looks like he’s been racking up 145mile weeks. That said, the top five are going to be interesting. Could see Adam Campbell getting the win on this one. Canadian’s 1-2 in the mens race, as well as Ellie in the women’s race would be awesome!

  4. karlmeltzer says:

    Loutit definately gets my respect, I know his HURT experience. I”ve run there so I know, that’s why I picked him#2. :-)

  5. karlmeltzer says:

    Scott,Speedgoat 50k is ALOT harder than Pikes Peak. 11,600′ of climb compared to 7870′. yah, another 5 miles, but…..

    And, ALOT more technical. Pikes is a buffed trail top to bottom, so very fast….relatively speaking of course.

    • Scott S says:

      Thanks. For me, the hardest part of PPM was the trail above 12,000 ft up to the peak; I just can’t get enough O2 up there! maybe next year I’ll be brave enough to give your 50k a shot.

  6. […] lays down his predictions for […]

  7. Ryne says:

    I think Gary Gellin, Aaron Heidt & Peter Ellis will be in the mix for the Top 5 in the men’s race and I see another 2 or 3 Canadian women maxing a run at a spot in the Top 5 for women (Mel Bos, Stacey Cleveland & DarbyKai Standrick).

    Good list tho, tough one to call here as the fields are loaded! Hope the luge all came together for ya this winter!

  8. Jasonhynd says:

    For me, I hope that Max goes for broke at Chuckanut, and that slows him up a bunch the next weekend at the Gorge 50k, putting me within striking distance… scratch that.. within 3omin and 10 places of him!

  9. footfeathers says:

    If Gary Gellin can rebound after WTC50k, he’s on fire right now and, more importantly, he believes he has the ability to run with anyone (which he does).

  10. […] Meltzer, perennial predictor of finish placements for ultras all around, has posted his predictions for Saturday’s race. It would appear that he is predicting a victory for the guys with fast […]

  11. Paul says:

    Aaron Heidt should do well. Bellingham, WA is just over the border from Vancouver so all the Canadians who come down for the race have almost the exact same terrain to train on (ie, sort of a home course advantage)

  12. schlarb says:

    I’ve planned on this post since you put up your predictions Karl… Based on TNF and Bandera I would have bet the same way, but this race, I was ready and confident in a top 5 finish.
    I’ve wanted to run The White River 50 for over a year, but I might just jump ship and run your 50k, that is an awesome race you have!

  13. Mike Bailey says:

    I know the race is a done deal now, but I’m surprised no one has mentioned 2:16 marathoner Sage Canaday. He was a close second with an extra mile run, and it was his first ultra. The lays down 20-28 mile training runs at sub 6:00 pace. Not sure if ultras will become his thing, as he is a marathon specialist , but this guy should be one to watch at future ultras, and he’s only going to get faster with experience. I love seeing these crazy fast road guys cross over :-)