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Hardrock is finally here! 23

Jul10

So how is it gonna pan out?  Well, the race will be interesting, with a few of the top guns bailing before the start, it gives the potential of early carnage….not so good.  I would rather see a faster field go out early and ruin themselves so this old man can mop of their mess.  Will that happen?  Probably not, but look for a fast start, one that I won’t be a part of.  I’m old and slow now. Who’s the favorite? Dakota of course, is anyone gonna stick with him?   good question, probably not, but this ain’t no track meet, it’s a mental race, and we race at 4mph…..pretty slow, which means lots of guys and gals can run that fast, but for how long.  “100 miles is not far”  Predictions below:

1.  Dakota Jones  2-1. He finished second last year, felt like shit, and probably has alot of it figured out by now, at least he thinks he does.  He’s acclimated, been mimicking Kyle Skaggs living in Silverton for the past 6 weeks or so.  He should do real well, and we’ll all be chasing him.  The only thing holding Dakota back is he hasn’t really nailed a 100 yet.  He is certainly due to nail one.  Will he?  that remains to be seen.

2.  Hal Koerner  3-1.  Hal ran about 31 and change on his first attempt at Hardrock, I remember passing him in Mendota Basin, while he stared into the darkness.   I had just done a shot of  Tequila, then proceeded to win the race in 28 something.  This time Hal won’t make any mistakes, so look for him to be on Dakota’s heels all day, pushing each other to potentially blow…..(good for me). :-)   it’s a race, remember?

3.  Joe Grant  4-1. He just needs to stay on course.  If he does that, he’ll be on Dakota’s heels too. He is one of the best climbers, and probable the best descender in the field, so we’ll see if those little shoes he has don’t get ripped like they did at Zane Grey, forcing him to drop.  Joe could definately win it.

4.  Speedgoat Karl  5   5 time winner, but getting older.  The last two years have been tough on me, in 2010, I wussed out.  In 2011, I hurt my back and had to drop at Chapman, mile 81.  This year?  If I don’t finish, I won’t be automatic any more….I’ll finish the damn thing, and if anyone blows later, my slower start will pay dividends when I sweep up carnage, starting  in Sherman.  My big goal is to break my time of 26:39, my personal best in this direction. I ran that in 2001. It would be cool to come back 11 years later and run just as fast……I could at least show some longevity in this silly sport. 

5.  Scott Jaime  7-1.  He’s due, he can certainly run a fast Hardrock around 26, but I see that as his limit, (like mine)  I doubt he’ll take a nappy-pooh at Grouse this time, and I know if he is, I won’t be joining him this time. 

6.  Nick Pedatella  8-1.  Like myself, better at 100s than any other distance, he’s due to throw down a sub 27.  

7.  Jared Campbell  10-1.  Jared is a previous winner in a mid 27 range, and he’s a great mountain runner.  If  his belly holds tough, another guy to run sub 27.  His past experience winning also gives him confidence to stay in touch near the front. My guess is Jared and I will be close all day.

8.  Tim Parr  12-1.  He’s won Leadballs at altitude before, so he can run up high. He tends to go out fast, a recipe for disaster at Hardrock, if he controls himself early,  he’ll have a much better finish. 

9.  Jonathan Basham  13-1.  Great mult-day runner, which I would say is his strength.  If he’s acclimated from VA?  it’ll serve him better. I would be Jonathan will take it out somewhat conservatively, then have a great finish. 

10. Tim Long  15-1.  Tim has had a great breakthrough season in my eyes, so he’s a bit of a mystery.  My suggestion to him is to simply be patient and let it all fall into place. 

So that’s the top 10 men.  Others that have a chance at going under 30 hours:  Brett Gosney, Harry Harcrow, Donnie Haubert, Christian Johnson, Adam Wilcox,  and James Varner.  

My two cents on all this:   Seems like to me, all the guys on here have “pacers”.  Yes, this is a legal thing to do, but they will be assisted with lights at night.  I won’t, I like to handicap myself.  

The women only get 3 predictions, cuz’ it’s a 3 women race:

1.  Diana Finkel 2-1.  Diana at Hardrock, is “almost” unbeatable.  But not quite. Darcy almost caught her last year, so I expect Diana to maybe eat a few more gels and food this year to get her over that last climb into Silverton.  Diana’s only problems the last two years, are really slowing the last 15.  If she does that again, I would think Darcy is gonna reel her in, or perhaps Krissy will be hot on here tail too. 

2.  Darcy Africa  3-1.  She almost caught Diana last year, this year, I doubt she’ll let her get that far out in front, but of course, this is Hardrock, and who knows.  Darcy is very capable of hanging in there for a sub 28 run too, but we’ll see if her foot?  is ok.  I think that’s the issue, if any.  She’s coming off a CR at Bighorn on July 16th. 

3.  Krissy Moehl  7-2.  So close to putting her up higher, she ran Great at Western in the mid 18’s.  If she’s recovered, look out, she could now be coming into form.  

The rest of the women won’t make the podium unless one of these three get lost or drops.  

I’m still sitting her in SLC, perhaps I’ll go get my shit together to run this weekend.  Any suggestions?  

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23 Comments

  1. The Bald English Teacher says:

    Hey Karl,

    When you pass Dakota at mile 90, you should tell him to load the truck and head to Utah for the Speedgoat 50k. All the other big names are going to be here…why should he miss out on all the fun? I’ll even pitch in $20 to help cover gas.

    Good luck this weekend!

  2. Heath Scott says:

    Don’t forget to tune into the Dead’s Sirius station for the run…and may the four winds blow you safely home!

  3. FastED says:

    Glad to see you’re making the trip. No naps or pacers for me either. And FWIW, no poles. See you soon!

  4. Lucho says:

    ” I had just done a shot of Tequila, then proceeded to win the race ” Quote of the century… LOVE it! I’m definitely pulling for the ‘old’ guys.

  5. karlmeltzer says:

    Way to go Scotty, is anyone else solo?

  6. halkoerner says:

    But I did win the $100 premium to Virginius. Who says there’s no prize money!

  7. Dallan says:

    It’s fun reading your odds! Good luck!!

  8. NickP says:

    Now I feel like I should leave my pacers at home…I don’t know how much they help though. I have run some 100s with and some without and doesn’t seem to make that much a difference to me.

    With no pacers at RRR100, we will find out who can run without them ;-)

  9. karlmeltzer says:

    Good point Hal…

    Nick it’s all good I’m just good at heckling…:-)

  10. Mike Place says:

    Damn the odds, I’m pulling for the wily speed goat to take the win! Go get ‘em, Karl. I’ll be back here pulling for ya!

  11. Brett says:

    I’ve never tried HR or the Barkleys…but I would think the mental toughness of fighting through nearly 60 hours in the Barkelys and the 50,000 feet of vert would translate well into success at HR (meaning for Basham). Yes, there’s the altitude, but learning how to fight through feeling like shit and no sleep in that race would be more important than altitude acclimation.

  12. footfeathers says:

    Thanks for the vote of confidence. You’re the man at this distance. It’ll take one hell of a run to take this one from you. Oh, I have an extra bed at the hotel (wed-sun) if you need a place to crash.
    just let me know 415.five two five.9002.
    Tim

  13. Jon Allen says:

    I’m heading over Friday to pace the only Brit in the race. Never been to HR before, so excited to see what all the hubbub is about. Hope to reach Ouray to see the frontrunners go through. Good luck to Karl and everyone else. Have fun.

    Are there bonus points if at least the pacer doesn’t use poles? :)

  14. solarweasel says:

    No dark horse Europeans to screw up the odds this year… looks like Hardrock is back to good ol’ red white and blue.

    Good luck to you all

  15. My picks:

    Overall/men: Karl Meltzer
    Women: Diana Finkel

    I just have a feeling this is Karl’s year. Also, Karl, you are not slow! Some of your recent 100-mile times show that!

  16. My bad: I meant Darcy for the women’s win. It’s early and my brain isn’t yet working.

  17. George Zack says:

    A guy named Mahon in the mix?

  18. JimM says:

    Good luck Karl have a great run and for someone who is getting older you sure seem to always be in the mix, maybe it is the tequila.

  19. Billy S. says:

    Dominic Grossman top 5 if he is patient maybe top 3.

  20. Steve Pero says:

    Heard John boy wasn’t coming…maybe that was just Camp Hardrock rumor mill.
    Adam Wilcox is going to run well…sub 30 for sure.
    Teach ‘em all a lesson, Karl!
    Hoping for Krissy to get it done…

  21. Justin Peake says:

    Good luck to everyone tomorrow. Go Goat go.

  22. bud phillips says:

    Karl,
    Good run for an old guy at HR – Congrats. Re HR and pacers, I could not agree more. HR is supposed to be a postgraduate run, so I think having pacers is a contradiction in terms. Besides, if there are no pacers, maybe the FS and BLM would allow 200-250 runners on the course. As a five-timer, it is relatively easy for me to get in. But for runners trying to get in with hundreds in the lottery, getting five finishes in the future is going to be very tough. Get rid of the pacers, and add more runners if the federal permits will allow it.

    Good luck on your future runs, “Old” Man,
    Geezer Bud Philllips