A quick look at the Bighorn 100 this weekend:
This will be my second 100 of the year. Five weeks after a great win at the Massannutten 100 May 16th. If all goes well, (and it should) I feel pretty confident that I’ll have a decent run on the muddy cow trails. Odds on this one are tough, as only know three other guys in the field have a chance at challenging me for the overall win. So I’m gonna make it simple here and try to pick the order for the top 5.
I’m also gonna do the mighty Western States odds on Monday when I return, so check back after this weekend for that. There’s been alot of chatter at AJW’s blog about it, so go there for this weekend, then come back and see what I came up with……all off the cuff of course!
Bighorn 100:
1. Speedgoat Karl 7-2. After putting pressure on myself at Massannutten, why not do it again right? I feel good, no injury issues and running 100 miles is not that far after running the AT. I have the textbook in my back pocket too, in case I need to refer back to the basics :-).
2. John Anderson 5-1. If John puts down a good run, he could win and go under 20 hours. His performance at the Speedgoat 50k last year was good evidence he’ll be near the front. He excelled at technical terrain at the Speedgoat, and if he’s good in the mud, he’s next in line.
3. Harry Harcrow 7-1. This guy runs textbook and under the radar a bit. Good runs at Leadville and Bighorn shows he’s got talent. But he’s got some good talent in front of him to beat. 3rd no problem, but an hour or two back.
4. Phil Shaw 8-1. Another guy that has great talent and has run some solid 100 mile times. On another blog mentioned in the comments on my last post, shows he has 16 minute 5k speed…..that doesn’t matter here. He’ll run solid and could crack top 3 if he keeps that 5k speed at bay.
5. Sander Nelson 11-1. Sander ran great behind me at San Diego a few years back. If he throws down another good one, he’ll run under 22 hours.
The ladies race is very open with Ashley Nordell leading the way in my book. She, like Amy Sproston at Massannutten should run away……unless I missed someone……cuz’ I always miss someone!
Top 5 at Western:
1. Scott Jurek 3-1. He has to be the favorite, he’s won the thing 7 times.
2. Dave Mackey 7-2. Hot on Scott’s heels, and with unfinished business at Western he’s my pick to win….even though I have him second here.
3. Hal Koerner 4-1. He likes to go out quickly, and if he holds it, he’ll be right there at the Auburn track at 930pm.
4. Eric Grossman 5-1. I should probably give him some more love here. He’s been stellar all year and this is his chance to shine. Definately the best on the east coast. The darkhorse (sort of) to win it.
5. Erik Skaden 7-1. He’s proven he can run fast at Western, and although he hasn’t shown big stuff this spring, I’m sure he’s focused on being another darkhorse to win.
The mens race is so tight it’s a tough call, but here’s another bunch of guys that will be in it at Robinson Flat…..at least. These are in the order I think they’ll finish.
Jasper Halekas, Zach Miller, Kubaragi from Japan, Todd Braje, John Olsen (if he runs), Josh Brimhall, Graham Cooper, Dave James, Dan Olmstead, Brian Morrison, Hiroki Ishikawa, Lon Freeman, Marco Olmo (he wins the over 60 category too), Laval Benoit, Mike Wolfe, AJW, Chikara Omine.
I think top 22 is enough for now. The real odds come out Monday.
Western Women:
1. Nikki KImball 3-2. If she’s fit, she’s the one to beat. She rarely gets beaten, and all the girls behind her on this list have never beaten Nikki at Western. She may crack top 10 overall.
2. Krissy Moehl 4-1. Wouldn’t it be great if Krissy would be real competitive here. She’s got the talent, and could squeak in a win if Nikki doesn’t get to Auburn first.
3. Anita Ortiz 6-1. I almost missed her here. She certainly has the talent, but it’s her first 100. The girls behind her will mop her up if she has a bad day, but she’s tough as nails. The only thing holding her back is maybe the heat. She’ll be close early when it’s hilly.
4. Bev Abbs 7-1. Another girl right in the mix, she’s been running well, and now is her turn to show it off.
5. Jenn Shelton 8-1. She’s horrible in the mountains, (sorry Jenn), but if she hangs in there to Foresthill and is still going strong, she is easily the fastest girl once the trail gets smooth. I’ll have the shot glass loaded for her if she wins.
5. Jenny Capel 10-1. Another girl that is pretty quick, but has her hands full with the 4 in front of her. She’s the sleeper in this field.
6. Connie Gardner 11-1. She kills it at 24 hour races and on the roads. Same as Jenn though, if she hangs tough through Foresthill, she’ll be running to win.
Prudence L’Heureux and Meghan Arboghast take the next two.
Remember the real odds come out on Monday, I’m gonna need something to think about while I’m running from the Bears in the Bighorn Mountains this weekend.
I won’t be able to moderate comments while I’m in Wyoming, so register to see your comment. I’ll try Thursday but no promises on that.
Now go Run!
