And the Odds are:
First off, this is a tough one. The results of previous years was coming up moot, so I’m rolling with what I know! Also, this year’s course is slightly longer to make a perfect 50k, so all the times I refer to in this list are as if they would be run on the old course, (to make it a bit easier for me).
Erik Skaden 4-1. He’s no rookie here, and it’s about time he won something big. He knows the course well with his Western experience and local knowledge. It’ll all have to click. Eric Grossman 5-1. He always seems to run fast, every race, even without competition. This race has the comp and should push him even faster. Paul Dewitt 6-1. He’s got the speed. If he nails it, he can run near 3:32 (old course time). Dan Olmstead 7-1. Another fast guy. He hasn’t raced much lately, but if he’s on, he’ll be in it. Phil Kochik 7-1. His best time is 3:37.56. No slacker here. His run in Moab 3 weeks ago was good on goat terrain, not his specialty. This course is smooth (when dry), this year it should be ugly. This won’t help him. Lewis Taylor 8-1. His best time is 3:41.50. If he’s good in the slop, he be further up than this. Thomas Reiss 8-1. He brings a solid year behind him. He ran well early season last year, hoping it’s the same deal this year. He’ll have the good beer at the end. Speedgoat Karl 9-1. I feel pretty good, Moab didn’t even really phase me. With all that shoveling at Alta, Utah this winter, my upper body strength should carry me to a strong finish. 31 miles is like a blink of the eye these days. Mark Richtman 11-1. He surprised us last year with some great times, he’ll crack top 10. Justin Ricks 12-1. I would put him at least top 5, but he’s had a recent issue which may have set him back a bit. If not, he’ll pay the most! Scott Jaime 13-1. A sneaky fast one. If he runs well, he’ll also be much higher. His PR is in the 3:45 range. Rod Bien 14-1. He’s looking to buy all the beers. He’s from Oregon, he must be fast! Andy Jones-Wilkins 16-1. He says he’s a little tired from that fast 100, but chances are he’ll have autopilot on and still run well. Others who could crack any of these places: Scott Wolfe, Craig Thornley, Jeff Riley, Nicholas Bingham, Mark McManus, Matthew Lonergan, Michael Buchanan, Nate Bowen, Kenny Brown, Michael Cook, Jed Tukman, Jean Pommier, Justin Angle, Jeff Browning, Jeff Kozak, and Greg NaccoThe Ladies:
Devon Crosby-Helms 5-2. If she’s fit, she’ll take her speed and win by more than 5 minutes. Caitlin Smith 4-1. An inside tip let me know if this speedster. It’s her second Ultra, so we’ll see. She hasn’t lost a short mountain race in 4 years. She recently broke the Seqouia 50k record. Prudence L’Heureux 5-1. Fast at some of the NF races, she’ll crack at least top 3. Bev Abbs 6-1. Probably the most experienced here. She’s got a best time of 4:07. She could win it and pay the most if she runs well. Joelle Vaught 7-1. Another girl with a fast PR of 4:17, but not quite quick enough to take a podium spot. She needs a few more hills to move a few spots up. Jenny Capel 8-1. Just a notch under “elite status”. She can now prove it with this field. She’s got it in her, and has run the course many times to help her out. Caren Spore 8-1. Like Jenny, right on the edge of being up front. Helen Cospolich 10-1. Good run a few weeks ago in Moab, but she also needs hills to be up front here. Other ladies in the mix: Anne Hitchcock, Meghan Arboghast, Suzie Lister.Dont forget the Speedgoat 50k for July 18th, tickets for the toughest 50k are on sale now until July 5th.
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It keeps on Dumping at Alta!
Great stuff as always, can’t wait to see how it all plays out. I’ll put one more dark horse in the men’s top-10…your young La Sportiva teammate Leor Pantilat.
Good luck.
Will G.
Like Will and Sarah, betting on rising star Leor, if he manages the course correctly.
And I’d add Cliff Lenz (5th at TNF 50-mile I believe, and even faster on 50K; and he run in the Masters division…).
Mark Lantz had a good marathon at Napa 10 days ago (he did beat me by 40″! ;-)).
Anyway, looking forward to this extra mile (making sub-4hr even more challenging), and to seeing you again!
Jean.
Farther Faster
Hey Karl…are you by any chance running the greenland 50k this May in Colorado? Reason I ask is I just got an advertisement email from the website (www.greenland50k.com) and it has a huge picture of you on the ad. Just curious.
WTC features a lot of new talent this year; should be fun to see how it shakes out. Thomas Reiss has the leg speed to do well on this course.
I hope Karl comes over the hill for Greenland this year (I gave them that nice picture to use), although there’s plenty to do over on that side. Jared’s new “Pocotello 50″ on May 23 looks great.
I didn’t see no photo! :-).
I’ll be at the Massannutten 100 on May 16th. I need 100 miles to do well. None of this 31 mile stuff. The Pocatello 50 will be stellar, and with only 2 aid stations, one step closer to racing like a european…on our own.
Lots of darkhorses at Cool, that’s what makes most northern California races great…. a big pool of people to choose from.
I’ll bring you a copy of Colorado Runner Magazine with your mug in it
Karl, here is your mug in the greenland50k ad…
http://picasaweb.google.com/runtworun/PicForKarl?feat=directlink
Yep, I was gonna mention Leor, too.
Last week Governor Schwarzenegger declared another year of drought, so the course is now dry and fast (sorry). Last month’s rain did however lay the groundwork for an excellent crop of poison oak.
Thanks for the detailed race analysis–though I think it may have been influenced more by heart than head. Have a good one.
Well, if it’s dry and fast, I’ll be lucky to crack top 10. The two times I’ve run Cool, it’s only been slightly muddy, hoping it’s ugly here. I love Poison Oak! Unfortunately, that won’t slow all those fast guys down.
It’s always influenced by heart. We’ll see how it pans out.
Even though I’m signed up for it I didn’t know that the Pocatello 50 only has 2 aid stations… Now I’m even more stoked to be running that race.
Yeah, I have read some comments by people who have run most of the WTC course within the past few days that there is very little mud. And our forecast for the rest of the week into the weekend is for dry and warm - temps expected into the 70’s by the weekend.
Drink lots out there!
Geoff, Jared wanted to make the race a little different, the aid stations are equally spaced, which makes it very cool. It kind of forces us to carry a little extra.
Andy, I’m kind of psyched there is no mud, but it doesn’t help me! :-). I was watching this last storm pound California, so at the time I assumed it was wet there. Sounds like the “terminator” was right about the drought :-).
Joelle ran a 4:10 last year at WTC…looks like podium potential to me!
Hi Karl, Geoff, and Others,
In all fairness to the new Pocatello 50 trail race on May 23rd I need to clarify some of what’s been said about aid stations. Initially we did only have 2 fully stocked aid stations, but there were also numerous “minimalist” stations with water (and Nuun too!) and basic food. After many discussions with the Forest Service as well as the kind support of several locals with 4-wheelers, we’ll now have 6 full aid stations with food and water and potentially 2 more minimalist aid stations. On average it will be ~6.5 miles between the basic aid station supplies, nothing out of the ordinary. We are certainly not out to prove anything by spacing out support. Quite the contrary really, we want this to be an inviting event for folks of all abilities and hydration/nutrition agendas.
We do indeed want this race to be unique, but not just by having fewer aid stations. The area is incredibly beautiful and oddly enough Pocatello did not have a similar race. MANY folks have commented that they are so excited to have such a race in the area, “it’s about time someone put a race like this together in Pocatello”, I’ve been told on many occasions. Also, given that it is in May we very well could have some superb glissading off the northern side of Scout Mountain (you can always opt out for dry ground if you want it, but what fun would that be).
At $60 we feel it’s a bargain for a 50 miler and we offer free camping at the start/finish line which is a nice bonus. Plus, the competition is really starting to get steamy. I’ve got a tip on a local Pocatello runner if anyone is placing odds yet…. It’s going to be a showdown in its first year.
Get psyched and sign up!
Nice Jared, seems things have changed a bit since we last spoke about the Pocatello 50. I’ll be able to help with the race, I’ll be back from Massannutten.
I’ll put some more pressure on Leor to perform well enough to place top 5.
It’s reaching the point where I know fewer and fewer of the entrants in these races. The talent is coming out of the woodworks … which is a very good thing for the sport (but bad for my own personal goals of cracking Top Five, Top 10, etc.).
It sounds like Darcy Africa is also going to be there. I’d put her in the running for Top 3.
Is the Poke 50 the only 50 in Idaho? Is the Schaffer Butte still happening up there in Boise?
Good luck in Cali, Karl.
- Garett
Jared, thanks for the clarifications. Camping at the start/finish is something that I wish every race made an attempt to offer. with a lot of races it seems like getting yourself to the start line on the day of the race is way too much of an ordeal.
good luck tomorrow, karl.