And the Odds are:
First off, this is a tough one. The results of previous years was coming up moot, so I’m rolling with what I know! Also, this year’s course is slightly longer to make a perfect 50k, so all the times I refer to in this list are as if they would be run on the old course, (to make it a bit easier for me).Erik Skaden 4-1. He’s no rookie here, and it’s about time he won something big. He knows the course well with his Western experience and local knowledge. It’ll all have to click. Eric Grossman 5-1. He always seems to run fast, every race, even without competition. This race has the comp and should push him even faster. Paul Dewitt 6-1. He’s got the speed. If he nails it, he can run near 3:32 (old course time). Dan Olmstead 7-1. Another fast guy. He hasn’t raced much lately, but if he’s on, he’ll be in it. Phil Kochik 7-1. His best time is 3:37.56. No slacker here. His run in Moab 3 weeks ago was good on goat terrain, not his specialty. This course is smooth (when dry), this year it should be ugly. This won’t help him. Lewis Taylor 8-1. His best time is 3:41.50. If he’s good in the slop, he be further up than this. Thomas Reiss 8-1. He brings a solid year behind him. He ran well early season last year, hoping it’s the same deal this year. He’ll have the good beer at the end. Speedgoat Karl 9-1. I feel pretty good, Moab didn’t even really phase me. With all that shoveling at Alta, Utah this winter, my upper body strength should carry me to a strong finish. 31 miles is like a blink of the eye these days. Mark Richtman 11-1. He surprised us last year with some great times, he’ll crack top 10. Justin Ricks 12-1. I would put him at least top 5, but he’s had a recent issue which may have set him back a bit. If not, he’ll pay the most! Scott Jaime 13-1. A sneaky fast one. If he runs well, he’ll also be much higher. His PR is in the 3:45 range. Rod Bien 14-1. He’s looking to buy all the beers. He’s from Oregon, he must be fast! Andy Jones-Wilkins 16-1. He says he’s a little tired from that fast 100, but chances are he’ll have autopilot on and still run well. Others who could crack any of these places: Scott Wolfe, Craig Thornley, Jeff Riley, Nicholas Bingham, Mark McManus, Matthew Lonergan, Michael Buchanan, Nate Bowen, Kenny Brown, Michael Cook, Jed Tukman, Jean Pommier, Justin Angle, Jeff Browning, Jeff Kozak, and Greg Nacco
The Ladies:Devon Crosby-Helms 5-2. If she’s fit, she’ll take her speed and win by more than 5 minutes. Caitlin Smith 4-1. An inside tip let me know if this speedster. It’s her second Ultra, so we’ll see. She hasn’t lost a short mountain race in 4 years. She recently broke the Seqouia 50k record. Prudence L’Heureux 5-1. Fast at some of the NF races, she’ll crack at least top 3. Bev Abbs 6-1. Probably the most experienced here. She’s got a best time of 4:07. She could win it and pay the most if she runs well. Joelle Vaught 7-1. Another girl with a fast PR of 4:17, but not quite quick enough to take a podium spot. She needs a few more hills to move a few spots up. Jenny Capel 8-1. Just a notch under “elite status”. She can now prove it with this field. She’s got it in her, and has run the course many times to help her out. Caren Spore 8-1. Like Jenny, right on the edge of being up front. Helen Cospolich 10-1. Good run a few weeks ago in Moab, but she also needs hills to be up front here. Other ladies in the mix: Anne Hitchcock, Meghan Arboghast, Suzie Lister.
It keeps on Dumping at Alta!