With the big turkey day upon us, think about running far today.
Coming next week is the North Face 50 odds! This should definately be a hot race to follow. Hopefully, I’ll have some connection in Cali to get me the results. I’m working on that. With $10,000 on the line for the winner, it’s sure to be fast. The Men’s and Women’s races will both be tigth, right from the start.
The Speedgoat 50k online registration will begin on January 1st, 2010. We’re still hoping to get 200 runners in this crazy race. 11,000′ of climb is all I should need to say to get 200 of you here. Trust me, it’ll entertain you! Watch the video here, let us entice you a little bit.
On my own end of things, I’ve found it entertaining to flip through a few blogs and read about the Western States Track Meet Lottery, coming Dec. 5. I’m sure there will be plenty of discussion after a few fast guys and gals miss out, so I’ll leave that for another date and put it on the backburner for now.
The Chimera 100 mile is rapidly approaching, and rapidly closing, so if one more 100 is in the cards for you, this is the last 100 mile trail race of the decade. But that has no significance. :-) I’ll be looking for win #6 this year. I still have the textbook in the back pocket, so I should at least run a decent race…..but we’ll see.
“100 miles is not that far”
My guess for NF50:
Uli will take it, but Geoff Roes won’t be too far off. Mike Wardian will be going for the cash, but I doubt he can hang on on a course like that. Tsuyoshi Kaburaki should be near the front as well.
For the women, Kami will win, followed by Lizzy Hawker.
Good picks Collin! I think Dave Mackey is gonna run too, he’ll be in the mix with Ulli for sure, especially if he’s on his game, which I bet he will be. Kaburaki will likely hang longer than last year, because of his experience. Top 5 will be a great race. Koerner may also run well as he just came off a 6:06 at JFK. IF he’s not fried his speed should keep him close.
Kami is definately the favorite, but Lizzy has no chance to beat Susannah Beck. If Susannah is ready to rip, she might take down Kami. Last year she wasn’t far behind and got lost for a few minutes. That cost her the opportunity to race Kami to the line.
It’ll be interesting.
Can’t resist going out on a limb as usual…
mackey (revenge for pikes on home trails that he’s ripped up before)
carpenter (knows what the $10k taste like and wants seconds…but will only get 2nd)
roes (already a solid run last year…now add this year’s incredible speed)
steidl (difficult to put him 4th but the top 3 are taking no prisoners)
wardian (just came off a 2:25 marathon a couple weeks ago but these technical trails in the 2.5 hours of darkness at the start = gapped)
women
catlin smith (might as well start planning on how to spend the $10k - she ran 4:09 for the overall win at pirate’s cove 50k this year, so I think it’s safe to say she’s comfortable and nutty fast on these trails)
First off I’ll have to say the NF website is pathetic. They don’t even have a current runners list. It was last updated on Nov 16? …….weak! If it were my deal, on the front of the NF page, it would list the top runners going for the 10,000 bucks. I’d probably do it 10 deep for men and about 6 deep for women. But that’s me.
I don’t think Matt C is running due to injury. Heard it through the grapevine…also Tony K is injured as well…I think. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
Dave Mackey to win it? Yes, perhaps. His 7:51 at Miwok is crazy fast, and this race might as well be called the Miwok 50…hardpack and hilly. Mackey has all the tools to win it.
Ulli has the most experience running to win. He’s been in lots of closer races, whether it was here the last two years or some of his 2:15 road marathons, he knows how to handle the stress of having other runners around him. Most of the other guys run just about as fast, but have not had the tight comp as Ulli has in his career.
Roes certainly has all the tools to be up front too. Experience, although he is NO rookie, he lacks as much as the two above. He’ll be around 7 hours is my prediction. Where that leaves him, who knows.
Kaburaki, although not well known at US races, is super fast and proved it last year. I bet he’s got some unfinished business here. And with his WS run, we see that he can be super tough and finish strong, that’ll be key here if it’s close.
Wardian only lacks a little hill prowess, but he’s fast as shit, and will contend this time. He’s my sleeper to win. His great run at the world 50k was great but lost the edge with a few miles to go. He’ll have to overcome that….I bet he will.
sound like I’m doing odds here!
How could I forget Caitlin? Silly me.
I look at the women’s race as a 3 chick duel!
Kami, Susannah, and Caitlin.
Kami has the most experience……easily, Susannah has the most “raw speed”, and Caitlin has speed, but lacks longer distance experience. Although 50 miles is not long, she’ll have to be risky and stay close if she wants a chance at the big check.
The course is essentially a hilly road race with a little singletrack mixed in, in my eyes.
Just my two cents…….worth about a penny.
Ben Nephew & Leigh Scmitt are my hometown (regional) favorites. I have admitted bias but Ben is killer on hills and Leigh is due to get a big one. 10K on the line may get a lot of foot turnover. I hope The Lung is not hurt but who knows besides him and the grapes. If he is hurt, I would rather not see him run. His mantra, when it hurts go faster could be dangerous. Good strategy, you only admit weakness if you are willing to run faster, limits whining! Any word on whether Anita Ortiz is running? Along with You and Matt she is my favorite, no BS! I hope NF covers the race better than the pre-race.
I still would bet on you but I wish I won my bets.
Do not forget about Chris Lundstrom from Team USA Minnesota. He should easily have the most leg speed of anyone in the race.
Keep the names coming! I’ll do odds today sometime. Yes! Ben and Leigh are on my radar, and thanks Evan for Chris Lundstrom’s entry onto my list!
I won’t be there, I’m waiting for Chimera to travel.
I keep thinking I’ll drive over there to watch, still a slim chance this speedgoat will be hanging on the ridge.
We’ll see.
Hopefully, the list I work with is somewhat complete!
I’ll try and find out about Anita, it would be an awesome 1-2 punch for her with the Western Win.
North Face modified the course this year, substituting Coyote Ridge for Dias Ridge. New course profile is here http://therunscout.com/2009/11/endurance-challenge-championship-50-mile/ So even less singletrack then before.
I’ll 2nd Evan in mentioning Chris Lundstrom. Whether he’s trail/hill tested, we’ll see.
That runs scout site is way cool! I like it. This site is correct about the technical rating of a 2 being soft; there is plenty of gnarly, slippery footing;I’d give it a 4 personally. The recent change in the course really doesnt change the amount of single track. If anyone out there is running it I would for sure know all the trail junctions and carry a map: I’ve learned the hard way on those trails.
Won’t comment on men’s winners as I am biased, but for the womens you have to pick Kami. If Anita shows then I pick her. Helen C for 3rd.
Man I wish Matt and Anton were coming (and Karl of course).. that’d be a fun day !
Thanks for the mention Karl but I’m just hoping to get in a good photoshoot on the course.
If anyone can keep up with Uli ill be surprisedbut this has been a year of astonishing times.
You still need to get ass to Ashland.
I’ll get there Hal! I’ll be needing a winter retreat for some dirt if you have some during those months. Sounds like you are doing what I did last year, just going to “watch” first hand in the race. Have fun with it
Dave, yah, I’d look at Anita as one of the top 2-3. Definately. Kami has to be the favorite cuz’ of last year and her great season this year.
It is scary to look at all the fast times this year, it’s kind of been a breakthrough year. Even I ran Hardrock 2 hours faster than ever before. That blew my own mind, then wasatch. So really, who knows what lies ahead.
We will miss Anton and Matt, and of course Kyle if he was ready. I would just be in it to watch, I can’t keep up with you guys. Maybe I could win another Masters award. Last year I won a place in the masters division, so they sent me home with a pair of shorts and a shirt, big enough to fit an elephant. The shorts went down to my ankles…what is this ghetto hoops?
I’ve been a busy slacker, but hope to throw in my two cents this evening, after I go shopping!
Hurry up back from shopping! Can’t wait to see your odds. Many lessor known studs in the runner list. Watch for Chikara Omine as a dark horse - boy knows the trails and is a consistently fast local lad. VERY difficult to bet against Mackey in this race.
Glad people like the run scout, let me know what race you’d like to see next…
For the TNF Race, I think Caitlin Smith is racing along with Chris Lundy. Each could give Kami a run for the money.