Before we get the odds going….

ALL SPEEDGOAT 50K RUNNERS!  START CHECKING BACK PERIODICALLY FOR RACE UPDATES ON THE SPEEDGOAT 50K PAGE, UPDATE #1 IS COMING SOON!!!

This year instead of creating “odds”.  I’m just gonna pick em’ in the order I think we’ll all finish, with a simple explanation of “why”.

Dakota Jones  Dakota has been in Silverton for the past 4+ weeks, slogging around the snow, plotting the course, and attempting to acclimatize to the high altitude the San Juans have to offer.  I’m sure he knows the course, studied the maps, checked his splits, practiced with poles, and he probably knows what my splits were from 2009 when I ran 24:38.  None of that really matters.  What matters is if he can nail it, and put together a solid 100 mile effort.  He’s got the ability.  Will he make mistakes…..we’ll see.   Everyone is watching you Young Money! 

Julien Chorier   I can’t say I know much about Julien, I’ve only heard some info from my Hoka One One connection, Nicolas Mermoud.  I”ve been told he’s a super smart, methodical 100 mile runner, and is very tough in the late stages.  Sounds very much like myself, so we’ll see how it pans out early, and what progresses from there. Most Europeans I’ve raced are as tough as they come, so I expect him to be at or near the front all the way back to Silverton.

Speedgoat Karl  I think if I put myself lower on this list, I’ll be called a “sandbagger”.  I’m not sandbagging, I actually feel great.  I am still in SLC and will show up last minute and run my race just like I always do.  I have no fear of anyone else, or the course itself.   For me it’s just another day at the office.  When I ran 24:38 in 2009, I showed up last minute too, so altitude schmaltitude.  “100 miles is not that far”.

John Anderson  He’s gone sub 30, and is very capable of running sub 26 if he nails it.  I haven’t followed John at all this spring, so I really don’t know his fitness level these days.  He knows Hardrock and how to run it.  I expect him to break at least 27.

Joe Grant I almost forgot about Joe!  He just won the San  Juan Solstice 50 mile and is set up for the fastest S-Jay Dooblay.  I expect Joe to play up front all day as long as he can.  His stride is super efficient for a race like Hardrock.  If it’s his special day, he could be the only man to ever win both races in the San Juans. I wouldn’t say his specialty is 100 miles, but I still don’t know Joe and his strengths too well.   He’s got 30 minutes or so on my for the double, look for him to be 33 minutes behind me when this is all over. 

Jared Campbell The defending champion who raised his own bar last year running 27:17.  I don’t know how I forgot to post him here on my first run through the runners list. SORRY JARED!   If Jared is fresh, he’ll be in the race to win.  He doesn’t quit either.  His strength is a race like this, that takes lots of perseverance.  I’m hoping he runs sub 27 and PR’s.  I know he can if he keeps his belly together.   I can’t believe I missed Jared initially.  I guess I’m losing it at my old age.

Darcy Africa Darcy has run  Hardrock just over 30 hours, (I think), and now that she’s got the experience, has been in Silverton for a while (I think again), I bet this time she comes out ahead.  Diana got the best of her last year with her amazing run, but it’s Darcy’s turn to take home the big rock on a piece of wood.    She is very smart in 100 milers and rarely fails at any race.  This is her turn to shine.

Matt Hart  He’s also been in Silverton with Dakota trudging around in the snow.  I’m sure he knows the course by now.  Splits, aids, food, creek crossings and how many, where the elk are.  But it’s his first 100 through the San Juans, and I doubt he’ll go out hard.  His best asset, is he knows how to be out for a long time, with his adventure racing background.   He could finish strong and move up quick if it’s a good day for him.

Duncan Callahan Duncan has won Leadville twice.  He knows what altitude feels like and should be pretty familiar with the course.  He and I ran the San Juan Solstice 50 two weeks ago and he looked solid.  Hard to say how he’ll do.  We all know he’ll be tough to the finish, and this is the race to be just that.  He’ll finish under 30 for sure.

Diana Finkel  Her best time is 27 and change, and in this direction.  It is hands down the best women’s time counterclockwise.   We would think I would have her on top of the women’s list, but remember this is only what I think will happen, not necessarily who the favorite on paper is.  She is the women’s favorite on paper, but my guess is not this year.  She is an amazing hiker, which is why she’s so good here.  It’s really a mystery to see if she’ll hang with Darcy.  We’ll see.

Nick Clark Nick just smoked Western States, but if we look at how his training has gone this season, how fast he’s recovered from races, then he’s bound to have a decent run here.  He knows he has no pressure.  This may pay off in this long slog of a race.   No doubt his ability is all there, it just depends on how bad he wants to keep pushing the envelope this season.   He could even win it if he nails it, but his chances of someone throwing a couch on his back in Telluride are real.   I don’t think he’s gonna want to carry the couch, I bet he’d rather lay in it.    I think he’ll be tired….but tough it out anyway.  I know I would be after that track meet.

Christian Johnson He’s the real sleeper here, he’s got the ability to run with the front for a while, which in a race like, being so slow, it could be good for him.  If he keeps his typical finicky stomach at bay, look for Christian to crack 28 hours.  It is his first Hardrock, and I’m sure he’s a bit nervous, but be careful, he’s faster than we think.

Nathan Yanko Another guy that will likely be hanging in the peleton for a while.  If he finds his groove, he’ll do fine.  Another runner with potential to run sub 28 if all goes well.

Brett Gosney Brett is probably the most experienced Hardrocker on this list, with the exception of this guy.  His goal is to break 30 hours.  I know he’ll stick to his gameplan of breaking 30, and being real methodical about it will get him there…. as long as he doesn’t think too much. Look for a sprint from him back into Silverton for a sub 30 time.

Kevin Schilling He was injured early season and is probably not as fit as he’d like to be, but at the same time, he’s a great hiker, a Speedgoat 50k champion ,  and has experience at Hardrock. He hasn’t really had his day here yet, so he’s due.  He could easily run 27 if he’s on.

James Varner He always goes out too fast, but I”m sure he’ll bring good karma, he’s always a mystery man to me.

Mike Popov, Ryan Cooper, Betsy Kalmeyer and Glenn Mackie can all run top 10.

THATS ABOUT ALL I HAVE FOR THIS YEARS HARDROCK 100.

On another entirely different note:

Jenn Pharr Davis has been travelling down the Appalachian Trail this summer attempting to break the mens record held by Andrew Thompson.  She is very close to his pace about 15 days into the adventure.  Although she’s had some shin issues, she is hanging tough.  Check her progress out at www.whiteblaze.net.  Punch in her name on the “search” box in the upper right corner to get an idea of where she is at.  She’s a bit under the radar, but many folks at whiteblaze are watching.   Go Jenn!  Please chick my time from 2008, so I have some real motivation to get you back next year.    She is also on Facebook reporting randomly.