The Lake Sonoma 50 mile will easily be the most competitive “early season” 50 mile. The field is stacked deep. John Medinger over at Ultrarunning Mag has assembled a stout list of trail runners, racing for some fine brew at the finish line. It’s sure to be nuts up front. A peleton may even form, something we rarely see in Ultrarunning. Of course, it’ll be men up front, but the women’s field should not be overlooked either. Although it’s not nearly as deep as the men, it’s deep enough to make it a great competition. Although, I’m not sure if there will be any beer left for the ladies with all these boys in front.
It’s been a while, but here goes my odds:
1. Dave Mackey 3-1. It’s his turn to come out on top. It’s been what, one race since he hasn’t won something? He doesn’t lose many at this distance, and this course should suit him just fine. He gets redemption on Tim Olson after Bandera.
2. Jorge Marvilla 7-2. One of those guys not many know all that well, including me, but he beat the other Jorge at Ray Miller and ran a fast time. So.Cal runners typically are in great form this time of year, cuz’ of the weather, Jorge would be one of them.
3. Tim Olson 4-1. I’m thinking he’ll hang tough throughout, but this time, Dave and Jorge are gonna get away.
4. Nick Clark 9-2. He’s been running too much I think he’ll be fast, but not 100% sharp. However, not being 100% for Nick, he’s still in it for a podium spot if one of the other 3 doesn’t have their day.
5. Dakota Jones 5-1. He’s a climber now,or a runner, or a mountaineer. Not sure what kind of shape he’s in, and to put him 5th is kinda crazy. Either way, he and all these other guys will all be close. He could also win it, so we’ll see.
6. Hal Koerner 11-2. He’s gonna be wearing the #1, with a bullseye on his back. Someone will hit it and slow him down. I would personally love to see Hal repeat though, he’s probably one of the most underrated ultrarunners on the planet.
7. Gary Gellin 6-1. Gary smoked Way Too Cool,so we all know his speed exists. His experience is a little behind most of the guys up front (not by much) but I see him hanging for a while, then fallling off around 40 after his comfort zone expires.
8. Leigh Schmitt 7-1. We don’t hear about Leigh all that much over the winter,but he’s local around Sonoma and knows all the routes now, so with his course knowledge and local flair, he’ll be close.
9. Joe Uhan 8-1. Joe was real close at Bandera, and in theory should be closer up top. This race will be a great test for him with real comp, he’s the sleeper to win it in my books. He’s got it in him.
10. Mike Foote 9-1. Another guy just off the pace of the peleton. Mike is a bit better at the “real distance” (100 miles), but he’s got speed and talent too, he’ll make top 10 for sure.
11. Scott Jaime 12-1. A fan favorite…..:-)
12. Jeff Browning 13-1. Bronco Billy was hacking up some lung butter on Friday while we ran 24 at Zion National Park, and he was on the tail end of the cold, but if it’s still there, it’ll be tough to hang near the front. If it’s gone, he’s top 6. Giddyup Buddy!
13. Jon Olsen 14-1. Better at 100s, ran 13 and a little change at Rocky Road 100 in February, but we’ll see if he likes to go out real fast.
14. Phil Kochik 16-1. Hoping to relive some of his speed he had 5 years ago. :-)
15. Dan Olmstead 17-1. Another guy that could easily run top 5 if he nails it.
16. Dan Barger and Mark Hartell 20-1. Both are speedy,but have their hands fuller than full in this field.
Others…..I’m sure there will be a few mystery men in the field, there always is.
1. Joelle Vaught 5-2. The uglier the course is, the better she’ll do. I have heard that the singletrack can be quite narrow. This is good for Joelle so the other road based girls slow down some.
2. Tyler Stewart 3-1. I”m picking her only on her good run at Way Too Cool. She obviously has speed, but that tight singletrack is gonna slow her a bit compared to Joelle. WTC singletrack is a highway comparing the two.
3. Krissy Moehl 4-1. She’s definately a quick one, but not sure how competitive her mind is all the time. I’d love to see her win this one and shut me up.
4. Stephanie Howe 5-1. Another fast girl that recently won Gorges 50k. I ldon’t know her, but obviously she’s got some speed, we’ll see.
5. Darcy Africa 7-1. I believe Darcy has been dealing with some foot issues for a while, so her fitness could be a little low right now. It’s early and she’s a real mountain runner, I expect her to be more up front later in the season.
The rest of the ladies: Rory Bosio, Caren Spore, Jen Pfiefer, Kiera Henninger, Susan Brozik, and Denise Bourasso
Keep in mind folks, the Speedgoat 50k now has 73 spots left, expect it to fill quickly from here. THE PRIZE PURSE IS NOW $10,000! So if you’re fast, time to come run a real mountain race and earn your Red Bull Wings.
Speedgoatkarl’s 100 mile blend is still roasting over in Indiana, it’s tasty coffee, now soon to be available in 3lb bags for all you coffee junkies. This will help with shipping costs too.
My next race? I jumped into the Zane Grey 50 for some “Broken Arm Redemption”. Hopefully I’ll come home in one piece this time…
And don’t forget if you’re local in Salt Lake City, Bryon Powell will be at Black Diamond yacking about his cool new book on April 19 at 7pm. Show up and learn something! Get 15% of trail running gear and BYOB! yah,BYOB, even in SLC.
Now go run!